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Five Years Ahead: The most important resource in Central Asia is no longer oil
Hydrocarbons built the modern map of Central Asia. The next map will be drawn by water, and the lines are already moving in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the shrinking glaciers overhead.

Russia is squeezing Tajik migrants. Dushanbe is the quiet beneficiary
This week Russia made its citizenship 12 times more expensive and all but reserved the cheap path for men willing to fight its war. The West sees victims of Moscow. It keeps missing the government in Dushanbe that needs these men gone, and needs their money home.

Kazakhstan’s reforms all point one way
On 12 June the party that ran Kazakhstan for a quarter of a century voted to dissolve itself into a party loyal to the sitting president. It was called renewal. It is the latest step in a steady concentration of power that the country’s reformist vocabulary keeps describing and never quite reverses.

The minerals man, the Shenzhen check, and the Russian gas tap
In one week Kazakhstan hosted an American official hunting for minerals, pocketed $6 billion from a Chinese roadshow, and offered to pump more Russian gas to its neighbor. The performance was flawless. The stage is getting smaller.

Armenia keeps its course, on less than half the vote
Civil Contract will govern alone for a third term on 49.81 percent of the vote, its lowest winning share since Nikol Pashinyan took power. The campaign that delivered it is the part the celebration skips.

Forum week: Baku signed, St. Petersburg celebrated, Riga quietly worked
Three gatherings, one week, one pipeline. A tour of the parallel universes of Eurasian energy diplomacy.

Armenia on the eve: what the campaign actually settled
Tomorrow Armenians vote. The result looks predictable. The questions it raises are not.

The Tsar, the Steppe, and the Very Friendly Lunch
What Vladimir Putin’s second state visit to Kazakhstan really said — and what everyone agreed not to say out loud

Why the Tajikistan-Afghanistan Border Crisis Could Destabilize Central Asia
A wave of deadly clashes on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, including attacks that killed Chinese workers inside Tajikistan in November, is raising the risk of broader instability across Central Asia and putting trade routes, energy links, foreign investment, and regional diplomacy under growing pressure.