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Independent Central Asia Monitor
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China's fuel promise to Mongolia gets a number: 17,000 tonnes for September, and a 20-year frame around itKazakhstan pauses collecting its $5.2 billion Kashagan fine after NCOC takes the bailiff to courtBaku moves the start of work on the Trump route to 2027, 6 days before Armenia's court takes up the dealKazakhstan's energy ministry says CPC loading stopped on 2 buoys after Tuesday's drone incident and resumed after checks

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188 results
  1. The port war now runs on both shores of the Black Sea
    SecurityAnalysis26 Aug

    The port war now runs on both shores of the Black Sea

    Russia says it struck cargo vessels and fuel storage at Ukraine's Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk ports on 25 August, extending a campaign against Ukrainian harbours it has run since mid-July. Across the water, Russia's own grain terminals at Novorossiysk are idle for a third week, and moving Kazakh oil through the same sea still costs nearly $400,000 a day.

  2. A Kazakh refinery turns north, and the minister calls the terms normal
    EnergyAnalysis26 Aug

    A Kazakh refinery turns north, and the minister calls the terms normal

    Kazakhstan's energy ministry says an arrangement is in place under which the Kondensat refinery in Aksay keeps up to 30% of its petrol and diesel at home and sends the rest to Russia. The tonnage is small. The direction, with Russia's own petrol exports banned into 2027, is the news.

  3. At the drought conference, the money moves and the rule does not
    AnalysisAnalysis25 Aug

    At the drought conference, the money moves and the rule does not

    The UN desertification conference in Ulaanbaatar marked its Water Day on 25 August. The Asian Development Bank announced a target the same day: at least $2 billion by 2035 for land restoration across Asia and the Pacific. The one text at that conference that would bind anybody, a drought regime, is deadlocked with three days left.

  4. Kazakhstan cuts its oil plan by exactly what the strikes took
    EnergyAnalysis25 Aug

    Kazakhstan cuts its oil plan by exactly what the strikes took

    On 25 August Kazakhstan's energy ministry took the 2026 oil and condensate plan down to 96 million tonnes and put the losses from strikes on Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities at about 3.5 million tonnes. The year opened on a plan of 99.55 million. Subtract the loss from the opening plan and you land within 50,000 tonnes of the new figure. On that arithmetic the ministry is assuming nothing back.

  5. Mongolia's Chinese fuel target runs through the miners already burning it
    China FactorAnalysis25 Aug

    Mongolia's Chinese fuel target runs through the miners already burning it

    The industry ministry has set a target of covering 30% of Mongolia's domestic fuel consumption from China and named the channel: about 30 Chinese-invested mining companies that already burn some 1.2 million tons of diesel a year. August deliveries in the ministry's count total 11,000 tons.

  6. Kazakhstan's cabinet is ordered out, and it plans the next 3 years
    EconomyAnalysis25 Aug

    Kazakhstan's cabinet is ordered out, and it plans the next 3 years

    The government President Tokayev has told to resign spent Tuesday morning approving Kazakhstan's economic forecast for 2027 to 2029: growth above 5%, exports rising to $88.5 billion, and 5 trillion tenge of targeted National Fund money. The numbers will outlive the cabinet that wrote them.

  7. Mongolia's mid-year budget spends the money its provinces never did
    EconomyAnalysis24 Aug

    Mongolia's mid-year budget spends the money its provinces never did

    The government has asked parliament to raise this year's spending ceiling by ₮998 billion ($277 million), all of it unspent balances sitting in provincial accounts, and says it has saved ₮1.4 trillion elsewhere to pay wages, pensions and energy relief. The deficit it amends had already doubled by July.

  8. Azerbaijan takes a seat at Central Asia's table
    PoliticsAnalysis24 Aug

    Azerbaijan takes a seat at Central Asia's table

    Ilham Aliyev and Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a Treaty on Eternal Friendship in Tashkent on Sunday and chaired the third session of their Supreme Interstate Council. The document that travels furthest is procedural: Azerbaijan's full participation in the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian heads of state, a format that now runs across the Caspian.

  9. Exit polls give Kazakhstan a five-party Kurultai, and the government prepares to resign
    PoliticsAnalysis24 Aug

    Exit polls give Kazakhstan a five-party Kurultai, and the government prepares to resign

    Kazakhstan's first Kurultai election closed on Sunday with turnout of 74.19% and every published exit poll giving Adilet about 7 votes in 10. The official result is due by 30 August; the appointments that follow it, a resigning cabinet and the country's first vice-president, are due within days of the count.

  10. Azerbaijan builds 97% of a power line, and the missing 44 kilometres are Armenian
    EnergyAnalysis21 Aug

    Azerbaijan builds 97% of a power line, and the missing 44 kilometres are Armenian

    AzerEnergy says the 330 kV line from Jabrayil to Aghband is 97% complete: 74 km of double circuit, 1,000 MW of capacity, pointed at the border of Syunik. The full chain is meant to run from Jabrayil to Turkey, and every link is built, building or planned on Azerbaijani and Turkish ground except the 44 km that cross Armenia. Baku is building the corridor's hardware first and negotiating its legal existence second.

  11. Georgia's new refinery runs its first Kazakh crude
    EnergyAnalysis21 Aug

    Georgia's new refinery runs its first Kazakh crude

    Kulevi took 5,500 tonnes of Kazakh crude in July, the first Kazakhstan has ever sold into Georgia, at $3.2 million. The operator says August cargoes and Libyan barrels will finish replacing Russian supply. For Astana the volume is a rounding error. For Tbilisi, direction.

  12. Uzbekistan charters an English-law enclave to the year 2100
    EconomyAnalysis21 Aug

    Uzbekistan charters an English-law enclave to the year 2100

    Mirziyoyev has signed the law creating Enterprise Uzbekistan, a digital-technology jurisdiction with zero taxes on export activity, English common law and its own commercial court, guaranteed for 74 years. Central Asia's governments are building a family of imported-law enclaves, and Tashkent's is chartered the longest.

  13. Mongolia puts soldiers and tax holidays on an unfinished refinery
    EnergyAnalysis20 Aug

    Mongolia puts soldiers and tax holidays on an unfinished refinery

    The cabinet in Ulaanbaatar has assigned Internal Troops to guard the refinery under construction at Altanshiree and freed the project from land fees for 10 years and property tax for 5. Until the plant runs, Mongolia's fuel security is a daily wagon count from Russia. Wednesday's count was 76.

  14. Yerevan promises everyone a deepening, and Moscow sends the first invoice
    PoliticsAnalysis20 Aug

    Yerevan promises everyone a deepening, and Moscow sends the first invoice

    The programme Armenia's cabinet takes up on Thursday lists partners from Washington to the EAEU for deeper relations, all at once. One of those partners has already put a price on its line: Rosselkhoznadzor is asking for inspection results and a written compliance programme.

  15. Tajikistan's new B+ is priced against a $5.8 billion dam
    EconomyAnalysis19 Aug

    Tajikistan's new B+ is priced against a $5.8 billion dam

    S&P raised Tajikistan to B+ on 14 August, its verdict on five years in which the economy grew about 8.5% a year and reserves rose to $6.4 billion. In the same package its analysts put the remaining cost of Rogun at $5.8 billion. The upgrade and the bill belong in one sentence.

  16. The Middle Corridor is one row in Washington's tariff table
    PoliticsAnalysis19 Aug

    The Middle Corridor is one row in Washington's tariff table

    Caucasus and Central Asia holds 4 names together: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, filed under Belt-and-Road Overland Nodes. That label does more work than any of the coverage that trickled into regional media this week.

  17. Mirziyoyev offers business a 3-year truce
    EconomyAnalysis19 Aug

    Mirziyoyev offers business a 3-year truce

    Uzbekistan signed a law of guarantees for business on Monday and spent Tuesday announcing the specifics: fines cut by half, a 3-year moratorium on most small-business inspections, energy prepayments down to 15%, and 10 days to fix a first offence. The guarantees are signed. The specifics, so far, are a speech.

  18. A 72 million tonne forecast meets a 33 million tonne half
    EnergyAnalysis19 Aug

    A 72 million tonne forecast meets a 33 million tonne half

    The CPC moved 33.35 million tonnes of crude in the first half of 2026, down 7.4% on a year earlier, by figures Interfax carried on Tuesday from KazMunayGas’s operational report. A 72 million tonne plan for the year is still on the books, and the books now require a bigger half than either half of 2025.

  19. 7 months of Central Asian oil via BTC equal 9 days of the CPC
    EnergyAnalysis18 Aug

    7 months of Central Asian oil via BTC equal 9 days of the CPC

    Azerbaijan's statistics committee published the seven-month ledger of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on Monday: 14.8 million tonnes, down 8.6% on last year, of which Central Asian oil made 2.6 million. Measured against the CPC system's June rate, the transit leg every redistribution plan cites amounts to 8 days of flow.

  20. Mongolia's fuel price outran the council that sets it
    EconomyAnalysis18 Aug

    Mongolia's fuel price outran the council that sets it

    AI-92 petrol rose 200 tugriks a litre on Saturday, the weekend Ulaanbaatar’s rationing lapsed, while the Price Council that approves regulated prices has still not met. The crisis is changing shape: supply is recovering, and the cost is settling where it always ends, at the pump.