Central Asia Wire
Independent Central Asia Monitor
Breaking
China's fuel promise to Mongolia gets a number: 17,000 tonnes for September, and a 20-year frame around itKazakhstan pauses collecting its $5.2 billion Kashagan fine after NCOC takes the bailiff to courtBaku moves the start of work on the Trump route to 2027, 6 days before Armenia's court takes up the dealKazakhstan's energy ministry says CPC loading stopped on 2 buoys after Tuesday's drone incident and resumed after checks

Energy

Resources and climate

144 articles
A 72 million tonne forecast meets a 33 million tonne half
EnergyAnalysis19 Aug

A 72 million tonne forecast meets a 33 million tonne half

The CPC moved 33.35 million tonnes of crude in the first half of 2026, down 7.4% on a year earlier, by figures Interfax carried on Tuesday from KazMunayGas’s operational report. A 72 million tonne plan for the year is still on the books, and the books now require a bigger half than either half of 2025.

Novorossiysk resumes its loadings, and the ships burn again
EnergyBrief19 Aug

Novorossiysk resumes its loadings, and the ships burn again

Novorossiysk reopened for crude on Sunday. Within 2 days a drone found a tanker whose tracking pointed to the CPC terminal, a grain ship burned out on approach, and the second Kazakh cargo the restart promised remains unconfirmed.

The blackout inquiry stops at the border
EnergyBrief18 Aug

The blackout inquiry stops at the border

Four days after two Toktogul generators tripped and Kazakhstan's south went dark, the inquiries multiply on each side of the border and the joint one exists only in Bishkek's appeals. Kazakhstan's Tuesday cabinet session went to school readiness.

7 months of Central Asian oil via BTC equal 9 days of the CPC
EnergyAnalysis18 Aug

7 months of Central Asian oil via BTC equal 9 days of the CPC

Azerbaijan's statistics committee published the seven-month ledger of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on Monday: 14.8 million tonnes, down 8.6% on last year, of which Central Asian oil made 2.6 million. Measured against the CPC system's June rate, the transit leg every redistribution plan cites amounts to 8 days of flow.

Kazakh crude is loading again at Novorossiysk
EnergyBrief18 Aug

Kazakh crude is loading again at Novorossiysk

Novorossiysk resumed crude loadings on Sunday, Reuters reported on Monday, citing two industry sources, and the first two cargoes the sources describe are Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. A Suezmax began loading Sunday and was due to sail Monday; a second tanker was expected to start on 80,000 tonnes of KEBCO on Tuesday.

The tanker leaves in the log, and nowhere else
EnergyBrief18 Aug

The tanker leaves in the log, and nowhere else

The port-call record for Aegean Dream now shows a departure from Novorossiysk at 07:02 UTC Monday after a 10-hour call. The ship's transponder, dark since 10 August, confirms none of it.

The tanker is inside the port and nothing shows it loading
EnergyBrief17 Aug

The tanker is inside the port and nothing shows it loading

Aegean Dream’s port call log now reads arrived, Novorossiysk, Sunday 20:45 UTC. Every other signal reads dark: no live AIS fix since 10 August, ballast draught on the last one, no loading recorded, no departure.

Bishkek admits the generators tripped and rejects the blame
EnergyBrief17 Aug

Bishkek admits the generators tripped and rejects the blame

Kyrgyzstan’s energy ministry answered Kazakhstan’s account of Friday’s four-country blackout at midday on Monday: yes, two Toktogul hydrogenerators briefly disconnected, and no, that does not make Kyrgyzstan responsible for what followed. The same morning, at home, the cabinet chief was tearing into the ministry for 26 emergency outages in 18 months.

A $10.7 billion corruption claim surfaces inside the Kashagan arbitration
EnergyBrief17 Aug

A $10.7 billion corruption claim surfaces inside the Kashagan arbitration

Kazakhstan is arguing in its closed arbitration against the Kashagan consortium that about a dozen contracts worth some $10.7 billion involved self-dealing, unjustified cost increases or bribery, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists reported on Friday. The allegation is the corruption limb of a claim that has grown to $160 billion.

Four countries lost power in one afternoon, and the operators blame each other
EnergyBrief17 Aug

Four countries lost power in one afternoon, and the operators blame each other

A cascading failure on Friday cut electricity in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan within minutes. Kazakhstan’s operator says the trigger sat at Toktogul, and Bishkek has not answered the claim.

The tank farm is full at Kazakhstan’s other Novorossiysk outlet
EnergyAnalysis17 Aug

The tank farm is full at Kazakhstan’s other Novorossiysk outlet

Crude exports through Sheskharis, the terminal that ships Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade alongside Russian oil, halted on Friday after a tanker turned back to sea and the storage behind the pier reached its limit. No restart had surfaced in the wires by Monday morning, and the CPC terminal next door has now said nothing in its own name for 18 days.

Novorossiysk halts its trains and its grain, and Kazakh oil keeps loading
EnergyAnalysis14 Aug

Novorossiysk halts its trains and its grain, and Kazakh oil keeps loading

Russian Railways closed loading toward the port for ten days on Thursday. One grain terminal stopped work the same day, another is repairing damage, and the harbour shuts twice today for live artillery practice. Kazakhstan’s crude leaves from a mooring fifteen kilometres west of all of it, and it is the one flow nobody has suspended.

The record rate to ship Kazakh oil is $440,948 a day
EnergyAnalysis13 Aug

The record rate to ship Kazakh oil is $440,948 a day

Daily earnings for a tanker running from Novorossiysk to Augusta reached $440,948 on Wednesday, the highest figure in a Baltic Exchange series that begins in July 2008. Washington's undertaking with Kyiv, three weeks old, covers the pipe and the terminal. The price is set somewhere else.

Kazakhstan’s oil route now rests on a phone call it was not part of
EnergyAnalysis12 Aug

Kazakhstan’s oil route now rests on a phone call it was not part of

On 31 July, JD Vance asked Volodymyr Zelensky to stop striking the route Kazakhstan uses to sell most of its oil. Ukraine agreed not to target Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure or non-Russian ships, and a US administration official has confirmed the warning. Last night’s attack on Novorossiysk, the heaviest of this crisis, was the first large test of that undertaking.

Afghanistan signs up to buy the gas it agreed to carry
EnergyBrief12 Aug

Afghanistan signs up to buy the gas it agreed to carry

Türkmengaz and Afghan Gas have signed a memorandum under which Afghanistan will purchase TAPI gas for its own needs. The transit country is becoming a customer, at a price not yet negotiated.

The injured are recounted before the dead can fly home
EnergyBrief12 Aug

The injured are recounted before the dead can fly home

Uzbekistan's working group reached Nizhnekamsk on Tuesday evening. The special flight it came to organise still has no date, and the official counts of the wounded moved twice in a day.

Nine hours over Novorossiysk, and the tanker due Thursday stays dark
EnergyBrief12 Aug

Nine hours over Novorossiysk, and the tanker due Thursday stays dark

Russia's largest Black Sea port spent the night of 11-12 August under a combined drone attack that ran past nine hours. The crude tanker due at the CPC terminal on Thursday morning has meanwhile been silent on AIS for more than 40 hours.

Mongolia's ministry publishes the Moscow promise, and Russia says nothing
EnergyBrief11 Aug

Mongolia's ministry publishes the Moscow promise, and Russia says nothing

The claim that Russia will send Mongolia an extra 25,000 tonnes of petrol this month moved on Tuesday from a minister's social account to his ministry's own website. No Russian institution has confirmed it.

Rosatom signs for 100 megawatts of Kyrgyz wind
EnergyBrief11 Aug

Rosatom signs for 100 megawatts of Kyrgyz wind

Rosatom’s wind arm, the Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund and the Eurasian Development Bank have signed for a 100 MW wind farm at Kok-Moinok in the Issyk-Kul region. The signature is five days old; the full public record of it assembled only this week.

Russia agrees to send Mongolia 25,000 more tonnes of petrol
EnergyBrief11 Aug

Russia agrees to send Mongolia 25,000 more tonnes of petrol

Industry and mineral resources minister Damdinnyam Gongor met Russian energy ministry leadership and executives of Rosneft and Gazprom Neft in Moscow on Monday, and came away with a promise of 25,000 additional tonnes of AI-92 and 5,000 tonnes of jet fuel by 31 August. By his account, that ends the case for rationing.