Economy
Business and investment
One day of $84 oil moves the tenge and cannot move the som
Kazakhstan’s official dollar rate dropped from 477.11 to 468.88 tenge on Wednesday, a 1.7% strengthening in a single daily fixing, the day after Brent settled at $84.73. Kyrgyzstan’s som stood at 87.45, where it has stood for a month, nine interventions and a billion dollars deep. The same oil price flows into both economies; only one exchange rate is allowed to say so.
Uzbekistan starts rolling the sheet steel it has always imported
On Monday Mirziyoyev pushed the button on an $839 million casting-and-rolling complex at Uzmetkombinat in Bekabad, the country’s first production of hot-rolled sheet. Two days later, in the middle of a +44 to +46 heat warning, the national grid set a consumption record. The steel week tells one story from both ends: Central Asia’s industrial ambitions are arriving faster than the systems meant to feed them.
EU sanctions reach the Russian cloud under Kazakh business
The European Union’s cyber-sanctions list of 13 July names the VK holding directly for the first time, along with the developer of the Max state messenger and VK’s chief executive. In Kazakhstan, VK Cloud told clients everything works as usual. That is true, and beside the point for every Kazakh company built on the platform.
A billion dollars keeps the som exactly where it is
Kyrgyzstan’s National Bank has intervened in the currency market nine times this year, always as a seller of dollars, and the disclosed operations alone sum past $1.1 billion. The official rate has sat at 87.45 to the dollar since at least mid-June. A rate that does not move in a month of 11% inflation is a defended line, and the defense is getting more expensive.
Uzbekistan carves out a constitutional enclave for foreign capital
Mirziyoyev has signed the constitutional law on the Tashkent International Financial Center: a district of the capital where English common law applies, a court can seat foreign judges, the regulator’s acts outrank national legislation, and tax exemptions run to 2076. It is the region’s third English-law enclave, and the first anchored in a constitution’s own tier of law.
Uzbekistan’s central bank pushes back on the P2P reporting draft
The Central Bank has formally objected, on bank-secrecy grounds, to the draft that would make banks report large personal transfers to the tax authorities. The State Tax Committee answered over the weekend: no mass control of personal transfers is planned, and P2P transfers between individuals are not in themselves taxable. The comment period is closed and the decision now sits inside the government.
The Syr Darya treaty is now law in both capitals
Tokayev has signed the law ratifying Kazakhstan’s agreement with Uzbekistan on joint management of transboundary waters, completing a process Tashkent finished in March. The two states that share the river’s lower course now have a standing commission, and a basin that has run on annual improvisation gets its first permanent bilateral machine.
Kyrgyzstan answers 11.2% inflation with a one-year price freeze
President Japarov has signed a decree imposing a one-year moratorium on raising selected tariffs, fees and prices of state and municipal services. It is the third administrative price intervention this year, and it lands three days after the Asian Development Bank raised Kyrgyzstan’s 2026 inflation forecast to 11.2%.
A new round of US-Iran strikes hits the port Kazakhstan just bet on
Eleven days after Kazakhstan signed a 27-year deal to build a terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port, U.S. strikes hit Bandar Abbas, where the port sits. The contract commits Astana to a southern outlet it has wanted for three decades. The war has just repriced the risk on it.
Tajikistan will spend $48 million on water works this year, much of it fixing what already exists
Tajikistan’s land-reclamation agency says it will spend 497.5 million somoni, about $48 million, on irrigation and flood works in 2026. Nearly 40% of that goes to replacing and repairing pumping-station equipment, which says as much about the state of the system as about any ambition to grow it.
China builds Tajikistan’s answer to its $600 million rebar bill
On 9 July, Emomali Rahmon toured the site of Tajikistan’s largest new metals project, a plant on the Shohkadam iron-ore deposit meant to end the country’s reliance on imported steel. The company on paper is Tajik. The firms building it, supplying its core technology and wiring its power are Chinese, Indian and Austrian.
Kyrgyzstan keeps 8.9% growth, and the price of it climbs to 11.2%
The Asian Development Bank now expects consumer prices in Kyrgyzstan to rise 11.2% this year, up from the 10.3% it forecast in April, while it holds growth at 8.9%. The revision is small on paper. It points at the question the headline growth rate keeps dodging: what the number is built on.
Tashkent moves to flag large personal transfers, reviving a fight it lost before
A draft resolution would require banks to report individuals whose cards take in large monthly transfers from people other than close relatives. The State Tax Committee calls it a technical clean-up of rules that already exist. Its critics read it as a government decree reopening access to financial data a previous reform round had closed.
Kyrgyzstan drops its own price cap after the capped fuel vanished from pumps
Kyrgyzstan's government has removed AI-95 gasoline from price controls it imposed in May, after the capped fuel disappeared from filling stations in Bishkek. The subsidy scheme survives; the hard retail ceiling on the grade it was meant to protect does not.
Kazakhstan signs crypto decree that lets miners run on gas the grid doesn't need
President Tokayev signed a decree on 8 July laying out rules for a regulated digital-asset market, stablecoins, tax breaks and tokenised government bonds. One detail stands out: crypto miners can now be powered by associated petroleum and natural gas when the state doesn't need it for other purposes.
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The corridor Central Asia is betting on is running low on water
This week Turkmenistan's ambassador called on the Dutch shipbuilder Damen to talk about its Caspian port, and the headline was dredging. The detail matters more than a courtesy visit suggests. The Caspian Sea is falling, and the trade corridor Central Asia is building to bypass Russia depends on ports staying deep enough to use.
Kyrgyzstan borrows to fix its finances while opening a zone that pays no tax
On 1 July the Asian Development Bank approved another $70 million for Kyrgyzstan, this time to strengthen fiscal management and governance. Days earlier, on the shore of Lake Issyk-Kul, the government had opened a financial zone offering 49 years without tax. Bishkek is borrowing from the development banks to shore up a budget it is hollowing out at home.
Uzbekistan's first census since 1989 finds 810,000 people its estimates missed
Uzbekistan's first full census since Soviet times puts the population at 39 million, some 810,000 above the running estimate, a gap the size of a large city. The new baseline resets the numbers behind schools, water, farmland and the labour force. For the region's largest young society, the recount is a planning shock.
Kyrgyzstan's new Issyk-Kul zone offers English law and 49 years without tax
On 3 July President Sadyr Japarov opened the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory on Lake Issyk-Kul: 6,000 hectares under English common law, no tax for 49 years, full profit repatriation and its own arbitration court. He pitched it as a Dubai or Singapore for the region. The first residents came from Switzerland, Hong Kong and the Gulf.
Kazakhstan's lithium ambition runs into the gap between a lab and a plant
The industry ministry says Kazakh scientists have pulled lithium from low-grade ore at a concentration standard methods cannot reach. It is a laboratory result. The country's aim, to process critical minerals rather than ship the rock, still turns on money and scale it does not yet have.