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Economy

Kazakhstan’s 2027 budget passes first reading with 19.9 trillion tenge of own revenue

Kazakhstan’s parliament approved the draft republican budget for 2027 to 2029 in first reading on 14 October by 128 votes with 8 abstentions, Kapital reported. The draft puts 2027 own revenues at 19.9 trillion tenge and spending at 30.2 trillion, with 5.5 trillion more in transfers, and the co-rapporteur said the VAT rise to 16% has yet to bring the revenue expected.

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Deputies voted 128 for with 8 abstentions, Kapital’s correspondent reported from the sitting on Wednesday. The government counts on 5.5 trillion tenge of transfers on top of 19.9 trillion of own revenues in 2027, and 3.7 trillion of spending goes to the real sector: transport infrastructure, agriculture, industry, enterprise and digitalisation.

The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is set at 2.43 trillion tenge a year in 2027 and 2028 and 2 trillion in 2029, deputy prime minister Serik Zhumangarin told the chamber, with targeted transfers of 2 trillion in 2027 and 1.5 trillion in each of the next two years on top. The draft assumes average growth of 5.4% a year over the three years, inflation of 7.5 to 9.5% in 2027 slowing to 6% by 2029, own revenues rising to 23.4 trillion by the end of the period and the deficit falling to 0.4% of GDP.

Deputies voted 128 for with 8 abstentions, Kapital’s correspondent reported from the sitting on Wednesday.

Co-rapporteur Olga Perepechina said the 2027 revenue growth of more than 16%, about 2.8 trillion tenge, is measured against a lowered estimate of this year’s receipts, and that the lowered base shows most clearly in VAT. The rise in the VAT rate from 12% to 16% has so far not brought the 2026 budget the expected growth in revenue, she said, by Kapital’s account.

About 80% of republican spending goes to social obligations, state security and debt service, which leaves little room to move money between lines, she said. The Supreme Audit Chamber’s conclusion, as she cited it, warns that the planned revenue growth may not widen the state’s financial room, and notes that targeted transfers are already provided for and the list of infrastructure projects was formed before the state investment portfolio was approved.

The list of investment projects is not before the deputies, and the materials submitted with the budget carry no criteria or justifications for them, Perepechina said. Support for the regions rises by 1,774 billion tenge against this year.

The budget’s oil price assumption is not in Kapital’s report. Zakon.kz and Kazinform carried the government’s oil revenue figure for 2027 the same day under the headline of how much Kazakhstan plans to earn on oil.