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A fifth of the country’s output, gone in a day
Kazakhstan takes the tanker attacks to the SCO table
Foreign minister Yermek Kosherbayev told the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s ministerial council on Friday that attacks on oil infrastructure threaten the durability of trade relations and supply chains. Astana has carried this month’s crisis onto a multilateral platform, into a room that includes Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan.
The bill for Kashagan, and the line nobody publishes
Kazakhstan is collecting 2.3 trillion tenge from the operator of its largest offshore field, in the week that field’s export route shut down. The state has published the demand. It has not published the calculation behind it, and it has not said who ultimately carries the cost.
Bishkek gets the SCO summit, and five weeks to prepare
The organisation’s foreign ministers are meeting on Issyk-Kul through Friday to prepare a leaders’ summit already set for Bishkek on 31 August and 1 September, in the SCO’s twenty-fifth year. Kyrgyzstan will host the region’s heads of state a week after Kazakhstan votes for its first Kurultai and days after the UN desertification conference closes in Ulaanbaatar.
Kazakhstan starts moving oil around a closed route
With loading at the CPC terminal shut for a fifth day, Astana had begun redirecting exports to alternative routes and was assessing its losses, Kommersant reported on 20 July, while the consortium has gone to court against Ukraine over damage it values in billions of roubles. The energy ministry now frames the production cut as a technological necessity: with the terminal’s tanks full, companies trimmed daily volumes to stop the system overflowing.
Tengiz halves its output
Kazakhstan cut oil and gas condensate production on 22 July after export loadings stopped at the CPC terminal, Reuters reported, citing a source: daily output at Tengiz fell to 406,000 barrels from 925,000. The energy ministry confirmed a temporary reduction and said consultations are running with the consortium, shippers and shipowners.
SCO foreign ministers meet on Issyk-Kul
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s council of foreign ministers convenes in Cholpon-Ata on 23 and 24 July, with Russia’s Sergei Lavrov and Belarus’s Maxim Ryzhenkov among those attending. Kyrgyzstan hosts it in the week neighbouring Kazakhstan lost a fifth of its oil production to drone strikes on an export route that runs through another member state’s territory.
Mongolia enters the EAEU tariff system
The interim trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and Mongolia entered into force on 22 July. Duties are cut or removed on 367 tariff subheadings for each side, covering about 90% of the trade between them, for three years with automatic renewal. By the commission’s account, Mongolia has no comparable agreement with anyone else in the region.
Uzbekistan signs its own commercial court into law
President Mirziyoyev has signed the constitutional law on the Tashkent International Financial Centre, which takes effect on 25 July. It creates a special jurisdiction with its own regulation and its own court: the Tashkent International Commercial Court, with a first instance and an appeal chamber, for commercial, corporate and financial disputes inside the centre.
Kyiv answers Astana by denying authorship
Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Viktor Maiko, said there is no evidence Ukrainian forces carried out the tanker attacks of 17, 19 and 20 July, asked Astana to refrain from hasty accusations, and raised the possibility of Russian provocations using Ukrainian drones. The statement, published in full by The Times of Central Asia on 21 July, is the first public answer from the Ukrainian side.
Astana starts collecting $4.9 billion against an arbitral order
The voluntary deadline passed on 20 July, and Kazakhstan opened enforcement proceedings for a 2.3 trillion tenge environmental fine against NCOC, the Kashagan operator, the justice ministry said on the 21st; the tenge figure is the legal one, and dollar renderings of it run from $4.4 to $4.9 billion. A UNCITRAL tribunal had barred exactly that, as the consortium announced on 16 July. Reuters reports the state warned the consortium’s chief executive of administrative and criminal liability.
Tashkent audits $213 billion of promises
President Mirziyoyev dismissed Uzbekistan’s ambassador to Belarus this week for what the readout called an indifferent attitude to investment and foreign trade, and told the head of his administration, Saida Mirziyoyeva, to assess every mission’s economic diplomacy. His own accounting framed it: 52 top-level visits have produced agreements on 1,617 investment projects worth $213 billion.
Bishkek lines up fuel from four directions
At a briefing in Bishkek on 21 July the energy minister, Altynbek Rysbekov, named the sources now filling Kyrgyzstan’s tanks: a first consignment dispatched from China by road, Belarusian fuel already arriving by rail, Kazakh fuel oil at 15,000 to 20,000 tons a month, and a tolling arrangement with Uzbekistan. Russia still supplies more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s gasoline; in this particular list it appears as the corridor Belarusian fuel travels through.
Novorossiysk stops taking Kazakh oil
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has stopped accepting Kazakh crude and the terminal’s tanks are full, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Tracking data shows at least two tankers bound for the berths have changed course. There is a measured precedent for what follows: when the terminal was attacked last November, Reuters reported Kazakh output falling about 6% the following month.
The middle position gets its invoice
Kazakhstan has monetized its distance from two wars since 2022. In four July days one of them priced that distance at the terminal through which more than 80% of its oil exports leave. The next document out of Astana will show whether the region has a policy for this, or only a posture.
Berlin signs the agenda, the numbers stay unwritten
Aliyev and Merz signed the Joint Declaration on the Strategic Agenda of German-Azerbaijani partnership on Tuesday, agreed to stand up a bilateral Economic Council, and talked gas at length. The watch lines our Tuesday piece set resolved the same way: intent everywhere, a number nowhere.
Moscow starts Uzbekistan up the produce ladder
Rosselkhoznadzor will restrict imports from five Uzbek exporters from 23 July, citing phytosanitary violations: cabbage, onions, herbs, beetroot, tomatoes and grapes. In May the same regulator suspended ten Uzbek exporters. Armenia climbed this ladder rung by rung this spring, to a full ban in June.
The market answers first: charterers flee the CPC water
Foreign shipowners are refusing to send tankers to the CPC terminal after four tankers were hit in four days, Bloomberg reported, and the consortium was expected to stop accepting Kazakh pipeline crude on Tuesday. If intake stays shut into the weekend, Bloomberg’s sources say, Kazakhstan’s producers will have to cut output. The war has traveled the route’s full length, from the berths to the wellhead.
The first e-TIR truck heads for Turkmenistan
The first pilot shipment under the electronic TIR customs system between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan began this week, the head of Azerbaijan’s road carriers association said: the cargo has already crossed from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan over the Caspian and moves on to Turkmenistan next.
Aliyev takes a strategic agenda to Berlin
Azerbaijan’s president is in Germany, with a Joint Declaration on the Strategic Agenda of bilateral partnership planned for his meeting with chancellor Friedrich Merz, per the state agency APA. The agenda runs through gas and the Middle Corridor, and the visit lands while Baku’s rupture with Moscow stays open.