Pairav Chorshanbiev’s report lays out the forecast line by line: diesel 700,000 tonnes for about $500 million, petrol 530,000 tonnes for about $400 million, natural gas 312 million cubic metres, liquefied gas 333,000 tonnes; the tonnage rises to 1.67 million in 2028 and 1.77 million in 2029.
The summer’s diversification has a number now.
A 7.8% rise to 1.55 million tonnes implies about 1.44 million tonnes for 2026; last year’s book was 1.21 million tonnes, and the first half of this year 599,500. The unit values in the first half were $807 a tonne for petrol and $789 for diesel, by customs data.
Russia’s share rests on an intergovernmental agreement in force since 2013 that carries no export duty. That agreement is also the exemption: Moscow’s bans on diesel exports, by producers to 30 September and by everyone else to 31 January, exempt intergovernmental deliveries, and Tajikistan’s book runs through one.
The summer’s diversification has a number now. Purchases from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan together reached about 34,000 tonnes in July, three times the earlier level, by the report; the first half’s monthly average across all suppliers was 99,900 tonnes.
Two other lines stay open. Tajikistan’s request to Iran of 2.55 million tonnes, made at a meeting in Tehran on 15 August, has produced no published contract; the 50,000-tonne refining line at Salosa, whose first stone was laid on 6 September, would cover about 3% of the 2027 book.
Dushanbe pump prices moved from 10.90 to about 13.50 somoni a litre for AI-92 and from 11.00 to about 16.50 for diesel between June and September. Donald Trump’s request on Sunday that Ukraine stop hitting Russian diesel is a request about the product on which 91.1% of this book depends.