Central Asia Wire
Independent Central Asia Monitor
Breaking
China's fuel promise to Mongolia gets a number: 17,000 tonnes for September, and a 20-year frame around itKazakhstan pauses collecting its $5.2 billion Kashagan fine after NCOC takes the bailiff to courtBaku moves the start of work on the Trump route to 2027, 6 days before Armenia's court takes up the dealKazakhstan's energy ministry says CPC loading stopped on 2 buoys after Tuesday's drone incident and resumed after checks

Energy

Resources and climate

144 articles
Russia asks Kazakhstan for petrol, and the supplier becomes the supplicant
EnergyAnalysis29 Jun

Russia asks Kazakhstan for petrol, and the supplier becomes the supplicant

Russia is in talks to buy about 50,000 tonnes of petrol from Kazakhstan as Ukrainian strikes knock out its refineries one by one. For years Russia was the region’s fuel backstop. That assumption is now running in reverse, and it is reshaping how Astana thinks about its own supply.

Hormuz shut again, and the southern route Kazakhstan is building sits behind the chokepoint
EnergyAnalysis26 Jun

Hormuz shut again, and the southern route Kazakhstan is building sits behind the chokepoint

A cargo ship was hit off Oman on 25 June, the UN paused its evacuation of 11,000 stranded sailors, and Iran told vessels to use only its approved lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. For Central Asia the reminder is sharp: the wartime oil premium can return overnight, and the southern trade route Kazakhstan is betting on passes through the strait that keeps closing.

A gas superpower cannot keep the lights on in Mary, so it fired the officials
EnergyBrief26 Jun

A gas superpower cannot keep the lights on in Mary, so it fired the officials

Turkmenistan holds some of the world’s largest gas reserves. In its Mary Region this month the power went out almost daily in 40-degree heat, a rare street protest followed, and the state’s answer was to dismiss local officials. The lights are still flickering.

Before the reactors, the wires Central Asia loses up to a fifth of its power in aging grids
EnergyBrief25 Jun

Before the reactors, the wires: Central Asia loses up to a fifth of its power in aging grids

While Astana and Tashkent pour concrete for nuclear plants, the EDB used its Almaty meeting to point at the cheaper problem underneath: aging generation and grids that lose as much as 20% of the electricity they carry.

Central Asia is going nuclear on Russian reactors and Russian credit
EnergyAnalysis25 Jun

Central Asia is going nuclear on Russian reactors and Russian credit

Uzbekistan has poured the first concrete for its nuclear plant. Kazakhstan has signed a $16.5 billion deal for its own. Both will be built by Rosatom, financed largely by Moscow, and fuelled on Russian terms. The region that talks about loosening its dependence on Russia is pouring four decades of it into the ground.

The three Syr Darya states lock in their summer water-for-power deal
EnergyBrief23 Jun

The three Syr Darya states lock in their summer water-for-power deal

Energy and water ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan met in Bishkek and signed a protocol governing water releases and electricity supply for July and August. It is the routine machinery of a bargain the region cannot afford to get wrong: upstream water for downstream power, settled season by season.

Central Asia's luck and Central Asia's road run through the same 50 kilometers
EnergyBrief22 Jun

Central Asia's luck and Central Asia's road run through the same 50 kilometers

The weekend put two Central Asian stories on the Strait of Hormuz at once. Iran's threat to close it props up the premium on Kazakh oil. Kazakhstan's new port plot at Bandar Abbas depends on it staying open. The same water carries the region's windfall and its future, and they pull in opposite directions.

Tashkent's forum showed a country sitting comfortably on every bloc at once
EnergyBrief22 Jun

Tashkent's forum showed a country sitting comfortably on every bloc at once

Weekend reporting on the Tashkent forum drew out a quieter result than any dollar figure. With Russia's premier on the plenary stage, US executives in side rooms, the EU courting the Middle Corridor and Albania making a debut, Uzbekistan displayed a multivector balance that one regional report called emphatic non-alignment.

Iran threatens to close Hormuz again, and the wartime premium ticks back
EnergyBrief22 Jun

Iran threatens to close Hormuz again, and the wartime premium ticks back

The talks that collapsed on Friday reconvened at the Burgenstock over the weekend and reported guarded progress. But Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz once more over Israel's strikes on Lebanon, oil edged back toward $80, and the premium Central Asia had been losing all week stopped fading. The deal is holding on paper and fraying in practice.

The war that gave Central Asia an edge is over
EnergyAnalysis18 Jun

The war that gave Central Asia an edge is over

The US and Iran signed the memorandum ending their war late Wednesday — Trump at Versailles, Pezeshkian in Tehran, Pakistan's Sharif as mediator in Islamabad. Hormuz is filling with ships again. For Central Asia, the windfall of the last three months begins to unwind, and a different door opens.

First Iranian oil tankers move through Hormuz since the blockade began
EnergyBrief17 Jun

First Iranian oil tankers move through Hormuz since the blockade began

Two Iranian supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 17 June, the first crude exports to leave since the US naval blockade was imposed in April. The strait is not open — but oil is moving again, two days before the Geneva signing.

The Iran deal heads toward Friday’s signing with its text unpublished and both sides claiming victory
EnergyBrief16 Jun

The Iran deal heads toward Friday’s signing with its text unpublished and both sides claiming victory

The US and Iran are preparing to sign their interim peace agreement in Switzerland on 19 June, but the deal’s text has not been published, the two governments describe its terms differently, and shippers want to see Hormuz actually reopen before they act on it.

Central Asia’s wartime windfall ends with the war
EnergyAnalysis15 Jun

Central Asia’s wartime windfall ends with the war

For 100 days the closed Gulf made Central Asia’s oil more valuable and its non-Gulf routes look wise. With Hormuz reopening, the region goes back to competing on price and reliability, with less of both than it would like.

Iran and the US agree to end the war and reopen Hormuz, and oil tumbles
EnergyBrief15 Jun

Iran and the US agree to end the war and reopen Hormuz, and oil tumbles

President Trump declared a deal with Iran complete on 14 June, set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after more than 100 days. Oil fell below $84 on Monday, down from a wartime peak near $126. For Central Asia, the windfall is ending with the war.

The Iran war is redrawing Central Asia’s map to the sea
EnergyAnalysis11 Jun

The Iran war is redrawing Central Asia’s map to the sea

Every escalation in the Gulf pushes the region’s trade further off the route through Iran and onto the corridors west and east. The war hands Kazakhstan an oil-price windfall and a bill at the same time.

EnergyBrief11 Jun

Kazakhstan says it is ready to pump more Russian gas to Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan’s energy minister said on 10 June that the country is ready to carry more Russian gas to Uzbekistan, toward 11 billion cubic metres a year. The pipeline that once sent Central Asian gas north now runs the other way.

Kazakhstan’s oil still rides a Russian route
EnergyAnalysis10 Jun

Kazakhstan’s oil still rides a Russian route

Astana keeps adjusting its output numbers. It still ships most of its oil through a pipeline that crosses Russia to the Black Sea, and that route is now a target. The exposure is built into the map.

EnergyBrief10 Jun

Kazakhstan sets its 2026 oil target at 98 million tonnes after pipeline attacks

Energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on 10 June that Kazakhstan will produce about 98 million tonnes of oil this year, below plan. Attacks on the Caspian pipeline and outages at Tengiz cost roughly 5 million tonnes.

 Central Asia, AI, data centres, electricity, nuclear, Russia, China, South Korea
EnergyAnalysis10 Jun

Central Asia declared an AI year. The grid will decide how far it gets

The region is racing to build digital economies, AI centres and crypto hubs. All of it needs electricity Central Asia does not yet have, which is why the same governments are courting Korea, Rosatom and Beijing for new power.

EnergyBrief10 Jun

Kazakhstan and South Korea deepen energy ties and edge toward a nuclear deal

Astana and Seoul advanced cooperation on power generation, oil and a planned nuclear memorandum on 8 and 9 June. South Korea is positioning itself in a country scrambling to add electricity.