Kazakhstan
Samarkand gives the C5+1 a vision without figures as Trump says why the Graham act stays waived
The statement the six foreign ministers adopted in Samarkand on Monday 19 October runs to six visions and names no sum, no sanction and no country outside the format. Tashkent supplied the sums, 54 agreements and initiatives worth about $12 billion by Mirziyoyev’s count, and Washington the reason the Graham act’s duties on Russian energy buyers stay waived: Trump is negotiating with Putin and can impose them at any time.
Kazakhstan’s 16% VAT is 686 billion tenge short of plan after nine months
In April 2025 Kazakhstan’s economy minister promised parliament 4 to 5 trillion tenge a year from the tax reform and a self-sufficient budget, with a year of extra inflation as the price. Nine months into the 16% rate, VAT stands at 89.6% of plan, mining taxes outside oil carry the overall plan, and the 2026 VAT estimate behind the 2027 budget is 3 trillion below last year’s plan.
Kazakhstan’s official rate falls to 452.12 tenge for Saturday and holds through Monday
The National Bank set the official rate at 452.12 tenge to the dollar for Saturday 17 October, 2.02 below Friday’s 454.14, and the same figure stands for Sunday and Monday in the bank’s daily series. The euro went to 508.95 and the yuan to 67.62, with the rouble unchanged at 5.41.
Trump waives every Graham act duty two days before the deadline as Rubio reaches Samarkand
An executive order signed on Friday 16 October adds a 500% duty to goods from Russia and 100% duties to the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and to five facilitators of evasion, then waives all three until the president or the secretary of state decides otherwise. Two days later Marco Rubio landed in Samarkand for Monday’s C5+1, with a business delegation and the duties set aside.
The tenge falls to 454.14 as analysts polled by the National Bank cut inflation forecasts
The National Bank set the official rate at 454.14 tenge to the dollar for 16 October, up 3.52 from Thursday’s 450.62 and the third rise in a row. Its October survey of 14 forecasting organisations lowered the median inflation expectation for 2026 from 10% to 9.5% and raised the Brent assumption for the year to $88.4 a barrel.
Kazakhstan’s 2027 budget passes first reading with 19.9 trillion tenge of own revenue
Kazakhstan’s parliament approved the draft republican budget for 2027 to 2029 in first reading on 14 October by 128 votes with 8 abstentions, Kapital reported. The draft puts 2027 own revenues at 19.9 trillion tenge and spending at 30.2 trillion, with 5.5 trillion more in transfers, and the co-rapporteur said the VAT rise to 16% has yet to bring the revenue expected.
Tokayev ratifies the oil protocol with Russia that saves 30 billion tenge in duties
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed the law ratifying the protocol that revives the 2010 Kazakh-Russian agreement on supplies of oil and oil products to Kazakhstan, which had expired on 1 January 2024, Interfax reported on 16 October. The Kurultai’s conclusion puts the saving from duty-free imports at about 30 billion tenge in 2026.
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan switch on a 380 km Caspian cable and sign a Middle Corridor pact
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev opened the Trans-Caspian fibre-optic line between Sumgayit and Aktau online on 15 October, a 380 km cable on the seabed with a capacity above 400 terabits a second, Report said. In their presence the two governments exchanged a signed agreement on the Middle Corridor and restated a $1 billion trade target, Akorda said.
Baku keeps the CICA chair to 2028 and an Azerbaijani takes the secretary general’s post
The seventh CICA summit in Baku on 15 October extended Azerbaijan’s chairmanship to 2028, made Azerbaijani ambassador Sultan Hajiyev secretary general to 2030 and admitted Laos as the 29th member, Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said. Kazakhstan founded the forum in 1992 and a Kazakh ran its secretariat until this week. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the members had agreed to turn CICA into a full international organisation, a line the ministry omits.
The tenge’s official rate steps back to 450.62 for 15 October after two days of gains
The National Bank of Kazakhstan set the official rate at 450.62 tenge to the dollar for 15 October, 2.17 weaker than Wednesday’s 448.45, by its daily series. The two preceding days had taken the rate down from the 453.93 that held over the weekend and Monday.
Four in five British seasonal farm visas go to Central Asians who buy the visa themselves
Britain granted 41,766 Seasonal Worker visas in the year to June 2026 and 79% went to Central Asians, with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan the countries the Home Office names. Its survey with Defra of 16,787 workers shows who paid: 90.1% said they bought their own visa, 63% spent £500 to £999 before arrival, and 26.8% of Uzbek respondents reported paying labour or migration ministry fees.
Four Central Asian presidents are in Baku for the seventh CICA summit
Tokayev, Mirziyoyev, Rahmon and Japarov are in Baku for the seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia on 15 October, their third joint appearance in eight days. Azerbaijan closes two years in the chair with a Baku declaration expected, Laos is to be admitted as the 29th member, and the forum’s depositary and secretary general are Kazakh.
Kazakhstan’s official rate is 448.45 tenge to the dollar for 14 October after two falls
Kazakhstan’s official rate for 14 October is 448.45 tenge to the dollar, down 2.86 from 451.31 for 13 October, which was itself 2.62 below the 453.93 that held for Saturday 10 October and Monday 12 October. The euro is at 501.59.
Astana says Russian gas keeps flowing after a pipeline blast and fire in Penza region
A section of the Central Asia-Centre trunk line ruptured and caught fire near the village of Volchkovo in Russia’s Penza region on 13 October, with a flame of about 70 metres, Gazprom Transgaz Saratov confirmed to Kursiv. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said that evening that Russian gas deliveries to Kazakhstan and transit to Uzbekistan were running to plan.
Kazakhstan’s election commission sets 29 November for the maslikhats as Amanat withdraws
The Central Election Commission called extraordinary elections to maslikhats of all levels for Sunday 29 November at a sitting on 13 October, the day after Tokayev’s decree dissolved every council. Seven of the eight registered parties are admitted: Amanat, whose deputies held most of the seats, wrote to the commission that it will not take part.
Rubio brings 200 business leaders to Samarkand as the Graham act’s 30-day deadline arrives
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be in Samarkand between 17 and 22 October for the C5+1 ministerial, bilateral meetings with all five governments and a delegation of more than 200 business leaders, the State Department said on 13 October. Sunday 18 October is the thirtieth day of the Graham act, the deadline it sets for the president’s first duties on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Tokayev puts Belgian investment since 2005 at $15 billion as King Philippe arrives
Belgian investment in Kazakhstan has exceeded $15 billion since 2005, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said at a joint briefing with King Philippe on Monday, the first day of a state visit by the king and Queen Mathilde. A business forum, a rectors’ forum and a round table on critical minerals follow on Tuesday, with dozens of agreements expected, by Tengrinews’s account of the president’s remarks.
The IMF slows seven of nine regional economies in 2026 and lifts Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, published on Tuesday, has growth slowing this year in seven of the nine economies CAW covers, with Kyrgyzstan still the fastest at 9% and Azerbaijan the slowest at 1.7%. Uzbekistan edges up to 7.8% and Azerbaijan gains too, from 1.4%. World growth slows to 3.1% in 2026 and recovers to 3.4% in 2027, the Fund says.
Tokayev dissolves every maslikhat in Kazakhstan, with new elections due by 12 December
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed the decree ending the powers of every maslikhat in Kazakhstan on Monday, after the consultations with the prime minister and the Kurultai’s chairman that article 88 of the new constitution requires. The Central Election Commission must now call early elections of all local councils and, under article 101 of the election law, hold them within two months, by 12 December.
The tenge’s official rate steps to 453.93 for the weekend and holds there for Monday
The National Bank set the official dollar rate at 453.93 tenge for Saturday 10 October and kept it for Monday, by its daily series. That is 4.99 above Friday’s 448.94. Last week ran from 447.73 to 454.98 and back to 447.14, and the bank’s next rate decision is on 23 October.