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The IMF slows seven of nine regional economies in 2026 and lifts Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan

The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, published on Tuesday, has growth slowing this year in seven of the nine economies CAW covers, with Kyrgyzstan still the fastest at 9% and Azerbaijan the slowest at 1.7%. Uzbekistan edges up to 7.8% and Azerbaijan gains too, from 1.4%. World growth slows to 3.1% in 2026 and recovers to 3.4% in 2027, the Fund says.

By CAW Staff13 October 2026
Grouped bar chart of IMF real GDP growth forecasts for nine regional economies in 2026 and 2027, with a dashed amber line at 3.1 percent for world growth in 2026.

The country figures come from the Fund’s data mapper, which serves the October vintage from the day of publication: Kazakhstan 4.4% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027 after 6.5% in 2025, Uzbekistan 7.8% and 6.5% after 7.7%, Kyrgyzstan 9% and 7% after 11.1%, Tajikistan 7.3% and 6.8% after 8.4%, Turkmenistan 2.4% and 2.5% after 3.6%, Mongolia 6.2% and 5.9% after 6.8%, Azerbaijan 1.7% and 2.3% after 1.4%, Armenia 5.5% in both years after 7.1%, Georgia 7.2% and 5.7% after 7.5%. Russia stays at 0.9% in both years and China slows from 4.5% to 4%.

Inflation is the second table. The Fund has Kazakhstan’s consumer prices rising 10.3% this year and 8.2% next, Uzbekistan’s 6.9% and 5.7%, Kyrgyzstan’s 12.7% and 14.3%, Tajikistan’s 4.1% and 4.8%, Turkmenistan’s 5.6% and 4.3%, Mongolia’s 11% and 10.7%, Azerbaijan’s 5.8% and 5.6%, Armenia’s 4.6% and 3.6% and Georgia’s 5.4% and 3.6%. Kyrgyzstan is the one economy where the Fund sees prices accelerating into 2027.

Russia stays at 0.9% in both years and China slows from 4.5% to 4%.

On the external side the Fund puts Azerbaijan’s current-account surplus at 11.3% of GDP in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027, Tajikistan’s at 8.2% and 3.5% and Turkmenistan’s at 1.4% and 1.8%. Kazakhstan sits near balance at 0.5% and then a 0.7% deficit, and the deficits run at 9% and 8.7% for Kyrgyzstan after 24.9% in 2025, 8.2% and 7.7% for Armenia, 5.1% and 4.6% for Uzbekistan, 3.5% and 3.7% for Georgia and 2.2% and 2.4% for Mongolia.

The other houses printed their numbers earlier. The World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia update of 6 October had Central Asia at 5.8% this year with Kyrgyzstan at 9.6%, Uzbekistan at 7.9% and Georgia at 7%, and UNCTAD’s trade and development report of 9 October had Kyrgyzstan at 8.8%, Uzbekistan at 7.9% and Tajikistan at 6.6% against Dushanbe’s own 8.5%, Asia-Plus reported on Monday.

Under the title Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, the report’s own global line runs: growth slows to 3.1% in 2026 and rebounds to 3.4% in 2027, headline inflation rises to 4.7% this year before easing to 4.1%, and energy importers outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook, the summary says.

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