US and Iranian officials are in Doha this week for pre-implementation discussions ahead of the formal signing of their framework agreement in Geneva on 19 June. The deal, announced by US President Donald Trump and confirmed by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 14 June, ends more than three months of war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz open to toll-free shipping, but as of 15 June ship traffic through the strait remained minimal: only three vessels known to have transited with tracking systems on in the preceding 48 hours, against a pre-war average of 138 commercial ships a day.
The framework leaves Iran's nuclear program for further talks over the following 60 days, meaning the deal's most sensitive elements are not yet settled. Brent crude fell more than 5% on the announcement to around $98 a barrel, its sharpest single-day drop since the war began, as traders priced in the prospect of resumed Gulf oil flows. Israel has distanced itself from the deal; Netanyahu said Israel was not a party to it, though he and Trump are 'in full agreement' that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons.
138 commercial ships a day transited the strait before the war. By 15 June, three had done so in 48 hours.
For Central Asia the clock matters. The war produced a windfall: Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, whose oil exports do not pass through the Persian Gulf, gained price advantage and strategic attention as the world scrambled for non-Gulf supply. That advantage fades with Hormuz. The June 15 AM pack covered the wartime-windfall-ends dynamic; this week's question is how quickly the strait reopens in practice, not just on paper. Officials say commitments take effect from 19 June, but the technical talks that follow will determine the timeline.