The war that gave Central Asia an edge is over
The US and Iran signed the memorandum ending their war late Wednesday — Trump at Versailles, Pezeshkian in Tehran, Pakistan's Sharif as mediator in Islamabad. Hormuz is filling with ships again. For Central Asia, the windfall of the last three months begins to unwind, and a different door opens.
Iran deal inches toward Friday's signing, Hormuz still barely moving
The US–Iran framework agreement is on track for a Geneva ceremony on 19 June, but the Strait of Hormuz remains close to shut. Three days of pre-implementation talks in Doha separate the region's energy markets from any real relief.
The Iran deal heads toward Friday’s signing with its text unpublished and both sides claiming victory
The US and Iran are preparing to sign their interim peace agreement in Switzerland on 19 June, but the deal’s text has not been published, the two governments describe its terms differently, and shippers want to see Hormuz actually reopen before they act on it.
Iran and the US agree to end the war and reopen Hormuz, and oil tumbles
President Trump declared a deal with Iran complete on 14 June, set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after more than 100 days. Oil fell below $84 on Monday, down from a wartime peak near $126. For Central Asia, the windfall is ending with the war.
The Iran war is redrawing Central Asia’s map to the sea
Every escalation in the Gulf pushes the region’s trade further off the route through Iran and onto the corridors west and east. The war hands Kazakhstan an oil-price windfall and a bill at the same time.
The Iran war reignites and the Strait of Hormuz shuts again
Iran and the United States traded strikes again on 11 June, and Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping. For Central Asia the effects are higher prices and a southern route to the sea that is shut once more.
In one day, Kazakhstan courts Washington, Beijing and Moscow
On a single day this week Kazakhstan opened a US-led minerals dialogue, banked 6 billion dollars from China for a new city, and offered to pump more Russian gas to its neighbour. That is multi-vector foreign policy as a daily schedule.
The scramble for the Caucasus, from Washington’s bill to a Chinese-built port
In one week Washington moved against Chinese and Russian sway in Georgia, the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia signed a declaration in Istanbul, and a Chinese consortium kept its grip on Georgia’s flagship port. The Caucasus is being contested in real time.
US House passes a bill on Chinese and Russian influence in Georgia
The US House passed the Countering China’s Control of the Caucasus Act on 8 June, ordering a classified report on Russian and Chinese intelligence activity in Georgia. It is the sharpest sign yet of Washington’s rift with Tbilisi.
Central Asia’s critical minerals race: the deals outpace the mines
Central Asia keeps signing minerals deals with the West; China keeps taking the minerals. The gap now is bankability, power and processing.
Four days out: Washington names Moscow's play in Armenia
Secretary Rubio told the Senate on Tuesday that Russia wants Pashinyan to lose. The claim lands in the middle of the dirtiest election campaign Armenia has seen in years.