The numbers are a shareholder’s, and they are the first half-year accounting of the crisis. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium carried 33.35 million tonnes in January through June, against 36.02 million a year earlier. KazMunayGas’s own share was 6.92 million tonnes. The report keeps 72 million tonnes as the figure for 2026, against roughly 70.5 million actually shipped in 2025.
Subtraction turns the plan into a schedule. Hitting 72 million tonnes leaves 38.65 million for the second half. That is 16% above the pace the pipeline just managed, and 12% above what it carried in the second half of 2025. Run for a full year, it is a 77 million tonne pace, about 10% above last year’s actual shipments.
The half the plan needs is the half the war is pricing. July loadings ran at 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels a day, more than 20% below plan by Reuters’ source-based count, and early August at 1.1 to 1.2 million against a normal 1.6 to 1.7. CPC Blend stood $4.60 under Dated Brent as of 12 August, its weakest level against the benchmark since January 2025 by Bloomberg’s count, with charter rates for the Novorossiysk run at $440,948 a day. This week added 2 struck ships to that price list.
Subtraction turns the plan into a schedule.
A forecast kept under these conditions is a statement, whichever way it resolves. Keeping 72 on the books says at least one shareholder reads the summer as a dent to be made up, and September is where the reading gets tested: the loading programmes drawn up this month will show whether charterers believe it, and the discount will show what the belief costs. A revision downward, whenever it comes, would be the first official number put on the war’s cost to Kazakhstan’s main export route. None has surfaced in the wires to date.