Kazakhstan expects to produce around 98 million tonnes of oil in 2026, energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov told reporters in Astana on 10 June. He attributed the shortfall against plan to shutdowns at the giant Tengiz field and to attacks on Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure, saying the country had lost about 5 million tonnes.
To offset part of the loss, planned maintenance at the Kashagan field has been pushed back to 2027, which the minister said would add roughly 2 to 2.5 million tonnes to this year’s figure. Output in the first quarter reached 19.7 million tonnes, only about 80 percent of the same period in 2025.
“We lost around 5 million tonnes,” the energy minister said of the pipeline attacks and field outages.
The CPC line carries more than 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, running across Russian territory to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. The figure also lands days after Kazakhstan joined the latest OPEC+ decision to raise quotas, leaving Astana managing a gap between the barrels it is cleared to pump and the route it relies on to ship them.