Central Asia Wire
Independent Central Asia Monitor
Breaking
EcoIslamicBank goes on the EU list from 13 AugustTashkent sends a 300-strong business delegation to KabulKazakhstan moves from a fine to a seizure at KashaganThe war reaches the Caspian
Energy

A 20% reserve margin appears in a Kazakh plan

The cabinet put its energy and utilities national project on the table on Tuesday morning. Inside it sits a target for spare capacity, with a date on it.

A 20% reserve margin appears in a Kazakh plan

Government met at 10:00 on 28 July with a single agenda item: progress on the national project for the modernisation of the energy and communal sectors.

Vice-Minister of National Economy Asan Darbayev gave the frame: total investment for 2025 to 2029 is 13 trillion tenge, of which 6.8 trillion goes to the utilities sector and 6.2 trillion to energy. In 2025, 6,600 km of networks were repaired for 547 billion tenge. The 2026 plan is 12,000 km for 1.138 trillion tenge. By 2029 the average wear of engineering infrastructure is to fall to 40% and emergencies to drop by a quarter.

The component targets matter more. Electrical networks: 15,758 km to be repaired, wear from 67% to 62%. Thermal networks: 336 km this year against 259 last year, wear from 52% to 48%. Water supply: 1,500 km, wear from 39% to 36%. Separately, 45 treatment plant projects worth more than 800 billion tenge are under way against an average wear above 65%.

Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov supplied the generation side: Kazakhstan plans 2,418 MW of new capacity in 2026, about 825 MW in 2027 and 4,000 MW across 2028 and 2029. He said the country will fully cover its own electricity demand from the start of 2027 and hold a surplus of roughly 1.3 billion kWh by the end of that year. By 2029 he expects, in his own wording, a stable surplus in the power system taking account of the necessary capacity reserve of 20%.

A reserve margin is capacity that earns nothing while the system is healthy. Publishing a number for it, with a date, is a different act from announcing megawatts.

The 2026 line is checkable. 1.138 trillion tenge buys 12,000 km this year; 547 billion bought 6,600 km last year. The money rises 108% and the kilometres 82%, which is what a repair programme looks like when input costs move faster than volume.

Two smaller items followed. A unified utilities platform, Smart Turmys, is due to launch by the end of the year, and the energy ministry is setting up a specialised centre for the cybersecurity of energy facilities.

No instructions from Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov had been published when the desk checked at 11:20 Astana, and primeminister.kz had not posted a readout although ministers’ remarks were already on the wires. Treat the absence as a lag rather than as a decision.