This morning’s pack left one question open on purpose: how the extension of Russia’s gasoline export ban to the end of 2026 applies to supplies under intergovernmental agreements. Dushanbe answered it on Monday, for itself.
Energy Minister Daler Juma, quoted by Asia-Plus: "We are working closely with colleagues from the Russian Federation on the indicative balance. Until recently it was fully met, and now, lately, there are certain difficulties." The ban in principle should not apply to Russian petrol supplied to Tajikistan, with final confirmation resting on the new Russian legislation.
The exposure is measurable and large. Russia accounted for 72.3% of the total volume of fuel imported into and produced inside the country in the first half of 2026. Domestic refineries supplied 0.5%. Imports ran to 599,500 tonnes worth $494.6 million.
Prices moved before any ban. Petrol cost $807 a tonne on import, up $61 or 8.2% year on year; diesel $789, up 4.2%. Retail AI-92 sells at 11.5 to 12 somoni a litre and diesel at 15 to 16.7, reaching 17 to 18 somoni at some stations. June imports came in about 65,000 tonnes below April. Reserves cover roughly two months.
Two neighbours, two instruments. Bishkek is rewriting a subsidy so that supported fuel can enter at any crossing point from any third country. Dushanbe is holding a bilateral balance and reading the drafting in Moscow, and whichever instrument fails first will show up at a pump before it shows up in a communique.