Economist.kg checked the pumps. Its monitoring for 28 July: AI-92 at Bishkek Petroleum 84.9, Red Petroleum 86.8, Rosneft and Jolgo 86.9 each, Partnerneft 88.4. Against the cap of 79.9 that is 5 to 8.5 som over. Diesel: the cap is 93.9, Bishkek Petroleum sells at 98.3 and the other four at 99.9, so 4.4 to 6 som over. Autogas: the cap is 45.8 and stations run 46.7 to 48.8. Temporary state regulation of fuel prices, AI-95 excepted, holds until 30 September, and AI-95 itself came out of regulation on 8 July and now sells between 99.9 and 109.9 som.
The move itself was quick. AI-92 gained about 2 som over the weekend and diesel 1 to 1.6. On 7 July AI-92 stood at about 79.9 and diesel at 93.8, which is where the caps sit. That is roughly 7 som on petrol and 6 on diesel in three weeks, and time.kg reported that no official explanation had been provided.
The state answered on Tuesday afternoon through its competition regulator. The Antimonopoly Service said it had concluded agreements with businesses selling petroleum products through filling stations, committing them to sell socially significant fuels according to an approved schedule of price changes and to keep them physically and financially available to the public. No trader is named in the announcement and no penalty is specified. The agency said that without state compensation prices would run at about 105 som for AI-92, 115 for diesel and 55 for autogas.
That compensation mechanism is still a draft. The amendment to Cabinet Resolution 369 of 25 May would extend fixed subsidy prices to imports from third countries, naming China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, at benchmark prices of $1,100 a tonne for AI-92, $1,200 for diesel and $700 for liquefied gas. It would also fold in transport costs to the Kyrgyz border and the cost of returning reusable containers. It has not been adopted.
The traders have given their own account of the squeeze. Kanatbek Eshatov of the Oil Traders Association said on 20 July that Russian refineries are currently offering only diesel and that traders are buying from Azerbaijan, China, Belarus and Turkmenistan, with petrol that cost $700 a tonne in spring now reaching $1,800 and diesel $1,900.
A ceiling the market has already passed is a number waiting to be revised. Tuesday’s agreement commits traders to a schedule of price changes, which is a different instrument from a ceiling and does a different job.