Tajikistan
Ukraine hit Russia's largest refinery, and Central Asia runs on its fuel
On 6 July Ukrainian drones flew some 2,500 km to set fire to the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest and its biggest maker of gasoline. Industry sources say the plant halted its main unit and pulled its fuel from the market. For Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and their neighbours, who run on cheap Russian fuel, the war has reached the petrol pump.
Who gains from the UN's silence on Tajikistan
On 3 July the UN Human Rights Council closed a confidential complaint against Tajikistan without a word of explanation. Three days earlier the World Bank had approved another $400 million for the country. Read those two facts together, and the silence has an address.
The World Bank adds $300 million to a dam that may never pay for itself
On 30 June the World Bank approved a second $300 million grant for Tajikistan's Rogun hydropower plant, and the next day added $100 million for economic reforms. The money keeps arriving for a project that S&P has warned may never earn back its cost, and that downstream neighbours say could shrink the Amu Darya.
Russia's new RuID app now stands between Central Asian migrants and the border
From 1 July, visa-free travelers to Russia, including millions of Kyrgyz, Uzbek and Tajik citizens, must file an electronic application through the Gosuslugi RuID app at least 72 hours before crossing and show a QR code at the border. The paperwork is digital; the hold is old.
Over a third of Tajikistan’s exports now go to one country, and it is Switzerland
Switzerland became Tajikistan’s third-largest trading partner in January-May, overtaking Kazakhstan, and its largest export market by far: 36.3% of everything Tajikistan sold abroad, worth $508 million, went to one Alpine country. The likely cargo is gold, and the pattern says as much about Tajikistan’s budget as about its trade.
Who guards Tajikistan’s Afghan border while Russia is tied down in Ukraine
The Russia-led security bloc says the Tajik-Afghan frontier is its main problem in Central Asia, and it plans to send more help. Russia is stretched thin in Ukraine, and China, which has major assets to protect inside Tajikistan, has so far left the job to Moscow. That arrangement is starting to look fragile.
China gives Central Asia eyes in the sky for its disasters. The data lands in Xinjiang
China and three Central Asian states agreed last week to build a shared constellation of satellites to watch for earthquakes, landslides and the floods that come off melting glaciers. The region needs the warning. The satellites’ data will be processed at a computing centre in Xinjiang.
Tajikistan’s workforce will add two million by 2040. The jobs are the missing half
Tajikistan’s working-age population will grow by more than 2 million by 2040, official projections say. Whether that becomes an engine or a pressure depends on a number the country has struggled to move: jobs created at home.
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Kazakhstan barely notices remittances. For two of its neighbours, they are the economy
New figures show Kazakhstan sent about $376 million abroad in the first four months of 2026 and took in far less. Money wired home by migrants barely registers in its economy. Two doors down, in Dushanbe and Bishkek, the same flow is most of the household budget. One region, two opposite economies.
Tajikistan ordered 14 Boeing jets. The question is what pays for them
A fleet order worth billions sits on an economy that runs on migrant wages, owes its debt partly in gold mines, and routes its hard-currency earnings through offshore shells tied to the president's family. The aircraft are real. The questions the Washington ceremony left out are the ones worth asking.
Dushanbe police break up a fake-medicine ring selling children's syrups
Police in the Tajik capital shut down an underground operation that produced counterfeit medicines, including children's syrups sold under brand names, in unsanitary conditions. One man is detained. The haul points to a public-health problem bigger than a single workshop.
Mirziyoyev opens TIIF with an invitation and a framework; Germany and Tajikistan respond
Mirziyoyev told nearly 4,000 delegates Uzbekistan's doors will always remain open and framed investment as a partnership, not a capital transfer. Germany's president arrived for a bilateral focused on industry and labour. Tajikistan set a $2 billion trade target.
Islamic Development Bank opens its annual meetings in Baku with $2.8 billion in approvals
The IsDB's 51st annual gathering opened in Baku on 16 June under the theme of regional integration. The bank approved $2.8 billion in financing at its board meeting and signed trade finance agreements with Tajikistan on the sidelines.
An amnesty for 18,038, and a map of whom Tajikistan will not forgive
On 16 June, ahead of Tajikistan’s 35th independence anniversary, President Emomali Rahmon signed an amnesty covering 18,038 convicts, with 11,305 to be released outright. It is a large and genuine act of clemency. It is also, as these laws reliably are, built with a careful list of people it will not touch.
Russia is squeezing Tajik migrants. Dushanbe is the quiet beneficiary
This week Russia made its citizenship 12 times more expensive and all but reserved the cheap path for men willing to fight its war. The West sees victims of Moscow. It keeps missing the government in Dushanbe that needs these men gone, and needs their money home.
Tajikistan is the EBRD’s fastest-growing regional economy, with one big catch
The EBRD’s new report puts Tajikistan among the region’s fastest growers, with first-quarter investment up 34 percent on the back of Rogun and state spending. Its weak point is the familiar one: dependence on Russian remittances.
Remittances remain Central Asia’s clearest stability gauge
The fastest read on Central Asian stability is the money migrants wire home from Russia. In Tajikistan it equals almost half of GDP, which makes the ruble the region’s quiet budget line.
The SCO at 25: A Quarter-Century of Summits, Zero Kilometres of New Railway
The anniversary session in St. Petersburg today will celebrate what the organisation has become. The Central Asian members are more interested in what it might finally build
The Level of the Delegation Is the Message
Central Asia is in St. Petersburg this week — but not equally. What each country’s roster says about where the relationship with Russia actually stands
Why the Tajikistan-Afghanistan Border Crisis Could Destabilize Central Asia
A wave of deadly clashes on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, including attacks that killed Chinese workers inside Tajikistan in November, is raising the risk of broader instability across Central Asia and putting trade routes, energy links, foreign investment, and regional diplomacy under growing pressure.