The envelope, as Asia-Plus reports it from the document, is $1.8 billion at the top: $1 billion to $1.2 billion from the International Development Association, up to $500 million from the IFC, of which up to $200 million would be the corporation's own money and up to $300 million private capital it mobilises, and up to $100 million in guarantees from MIGA. None of it is promised. The IDA figure depends on the association's resources, on global conditions and on each project meeting the criteria; the private $600 million is tied to reforms that lower investment risk, with public-private partnerships in airports, water supply and irrigation named as the vehicle.
The sentence that changes the arithmetic is short. From fiscal year 2027 Tajikistan moves from IDA grants to IDA credits, because income per head has risen past the level at which the grant regime applied. The Bank's fiscal year runs from 1 July to 30 June, so the year in question opened on 1 July 2026.
Its risk section reads like the reverse of the government's anniversary ledger. Overall implementation risk is rated high, and the Bank names weak institutional transparency and accountability, a business environment insufficiently attractive to foreign and private investment, a high risk of debt distress, fiscal risks tied to spending on the Rogun hydropower plant, the contingent liabilities of state enterprises and the economy's dependence on migrants' remittances.
Rogun appears among the 25 projects the same document intends to finance, next to tax and financial-sector reform, digital infrastructure, a new national statistical system, the Nurek plant, rural electrification, regional power trade, water supply and irrigation. In 2024 the Bank provided 38% of Tajikistan's international donor financing, Asia-Plus reports from the text. By the Bank's own release of 3 June, the current portfolio stands at 25 IDA projects worth $1.93 billion and an IFC book of $69 million across 7 clients.
On 31 August the UN's independent expert on foreign debt, Attiya Waris, told Dushanbe that from 2027 it would move from grant-based financing to concessional lending, and asked the government to prepare a cost-benefit analysis of all its projects. Her sentence has this document behind it, written before she arrived. It also carries the lever: the Bank will revise the programme's business plan every year against the reforms delivered.
From fiscal year 2027 Tajikistan moves from IDA grants to IDA credits, because income per head has risen past the level at which the grant regime applied.
The desk's own record shows what the grant regime looked like at its close: the water longread logged a $300 million World Bank grant for Rogun dated 30 June, the last day of the Bank's fiscal year 2026. Rogun's 2026 plan runs at 10 billion somoni or more, 8.2 billion of it from the budget, beside $500 million from the AIIB and $150 million from the IsDB. Eurobond service cost 2 billion somoni in 2025. Remittances were worth 47.9% of GDP last year by the Bank's own measure.
The desk's reading: the Bank wrote the price of the grant era's end into a document three months before the government's ledger claimed energy independence for 2027. The envelope is the same order of money Tajikistan has been receiving. What changes is that it comes back, on a schedule and with a charge attached, under a risk rating that names the flagship dam as a fiscal hazard in the same text that funds it. The difference between the two ledgers the desk described on Thursday now carries a coupon.
What changes next is visible in two places. The first is the terms of the first IDA credit the board approves for Tajikistan under the new framework, which will show the maturity and the charge the country now pays for money it used to receive free. The second is the next budget draft, which has to carry that service line beside Rogun's 8.2 billion.