The National Statistics Committee chair, Behzod Hamrayev, presented preliminary results on 30 June, from a combined population and agricultural census run from mid-January to the end of February, the first since the Soviet count of 1989. It put the population at 39,047,321 on 15 January, against an estimate of 38,236,704 two weeks before.
Most of the 810,000 turned up in one place. Tashkent Region's count jumped from about 3.2 million to nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among the country's regions. A territory that gains 600,000 people on paper needs new sums for roads, clinics, water networks and housing.
The age structure is where the pressure sits. Children under five are the largest single group, at 4.6 million, and 12.5 million people are below working age. Uzbekistan is the region's largest young society, and its task is to educate, house and employ a rising generation. That engine drives both labour migration to Russia and the strain on the grid.
The farm numbers moved even more than the people. Land under annual crops came in 23% above estimates and orchards and vineyards 18.8% higher, while cattle ran 14.9% lower. More irrigated cropland than anyone had booked means more water drawn from a system already short, at a time when Uzbekistan is importing gas and arguing with upstream neighbours over the Amu Darya. The state had been planning food and water against numbers that were wrong.
The state had been planning food and water against numbers that were wrong.
The results are preliminary, and the full compilation will follow. Even so, they redraw the denominators for budgets, subsidies, water demand and the migration model. Watch whether regional budgets and water allocations are rebased on the new count, and whether the larger young cohort shows up as more migrants abroad or more pressure at home.