In Tengrinews's account the move rests on oil above $100 supporting export revenue, dollar sales by the large exporters, a 16.25% base rate that keeps tenge instruments attractive, and weak domestic demand for dollars. Exchange offices in Almaty were buying at 444.41 and selling at 446.44; in Astana at 443.02 and 450.02. The intraday reading at 11:04 was 445.69, Kapital reported. Tengrinews's figure is the close.
The gap to the budget is desk arithmetic: at 444.88 a dollar of oil revenue converts into 17.6% fewer tenge than the law's 540. Oil output was 8.4% down over 8 months, at 61.7 million tonnes against a 96 million plan. Azeri Light, Azerbaijan's export blend, printed at $127.29 on Tuesday; no Wednesday print had appeared on Trend by 16:00 Baku time.
The 2026 budget law assumes 540 tenge to the dollar and $60 oil.
Tokayev told the Seoul summit the same day that commercial agreements signed during his Korean visit total about $19 billion and that Kazakhstan's transit target is 100 million tonnes. Tuesday's close was 447.88.