The figures come from the meeting of the economic-growth headquarters that deputy prime minister Serik Zhumangarin chaired on Monday, published by the prime minister's office at 16:56 Astana time. Real GDP growth for 8 months is 4.1%, the office said, and has held at that level for the third month running.
Oil is the drag. Output for January to August was 61.7 million tonnes, an index of physical volume of 91.6%, that is 8.4% below the same months of 2025. The forecast for the year stands at 96 million tonnes, the level to which the government cut its plan from 99.55 million in August, counting 3.5 million tonnes as lost.
A barrel that is not produced is not sold at either price.
The arithmetic the office did not print: 61.7 million tonnes in 8 months is 7.7 million a month, and reaching 96 million needs 8.6 million a month from September to December, an 11% lift on the run rate. The pipeline that carries more than 80% of the country's oil exports halted loading at two of its terminal's buoys after a drone incident on 8 September and resumed after checks, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said the next day.
Factories run the other way. Manufacturing grew 8.4%, with machine-building up 21.2%, the car industry 27.7%, chemicals 27.3%, pharmaceuticals 38.9%, light industry 70.4% and food 12.9%. Construction added 15.6%, transport and warehousing 7.3%, trade 6%, agriculture 5.2%, communications 4.4%. Industry as a whole, with mining inside it, managed 2.6%; ferrous metallurgy 2%.
The price side is not in the release. Brent has been above $100 since 9 September, and the 2026 budget law is written at $60 a barrel and 540 tenge to the dollar; the National Bank's own baseline is $89. A barrel that is not produced is not sold at either price.
The office named no field and no operator. The number the plan rests on is the one the September production tally will test.