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Kazakhstan takes the tanker attacks to the SCO table
Foreign minister Yermek Kosherbayev told the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s ministerial council on Friday that attacks on oil infrastructure threaten the durability of trade relations and supply chains. Astana has carried this month’s crisis onto a multilateral platform, into a room that includes Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan.
Korea courts Mongolia with a golden era and a minerals list
Lee Jae-myung’s state visit to Ulaanbaatar, the first by a South Korean president in 15 years, ended Saturday at Naadam, after a "Golden Era" declaration and a stack of memoranda. He arrived straight from the NATO summit, and the itinerary is the message: defense industry in Ankara, critical minerals in Mongolia, and a Central Asia summit in Seoul this autumn.
Armenia moves to take its power grid, and the price is the message
The public consultation on declaring Electric Networks of Armenia an overriding public interest closed on 8 July; the government decision is due in mid-July. Documents obtained by RFE/RL put the state’s net offer for a grid that absorbed some $900 million of investment at roughly $360,000. The decision will be read far beyond Yerevan.
Kazakhstan denies bombing a refinery, then builds 59 checkpoints against its fallout
Kazakhstan spent Thursday rejecting Russian claims that Ukraine's drones on the Omsk refinery were launched from its territory. In the same news cycle, its own police were manning 59 new checkpoints to stop Russian drivers from draining its gas stations dry. Astana is absorbing both ends of a war it is not fighting.
Lukashenko asks Uzbekistan for a door into markets Belarus can't reach alone
Shavkat Mirziyoyev is in Minsk on a two-day state visit that closes today with a strategic-partnership declaration and roughly twenty agreements. Buried in Alexander Lukashenko's own remarks is the real ask: help from Tashkent to reach third countries close to Uzbekistan. For a state locked out of Western markets since 2020, that request says more than any communique.
Central Asia's westward corridor runs through Baku, and Baku is fighting Moscow
On 6 July Azerbaijan summoned Russia's ambassador and handed him a protest note over a Russian drone strike on a SOCAR fuel station in Ukraine. It was the latest blow in a dispute that has outlived the settlement both sides signed in April. For Central Asia the quarrel lands close to home: the westward trade routes Astana, Tashkent and Ashgabat are building all pass through the country now at odds with Moscow.
Kazakhstan's court hands Tokayev the reset he said he would never seek
On 7 July Kazakhstan's Constitutional Court ruled that the term Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is serving does not count under the new constitution, so he may run again in 2029. The single seven-year limit stays on paper. Tokayev wrote that limit in 2022 as proof he would not cling to power, and today, at his own request, the court drained it of force.
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Kyrgyzstan convicts Tashiev of plotting a coup, and hands him probation
On 2 July a Bishkek court found Kamchybek Tashiev, President Sadyr Japarov's oldest ally and former security chief, guilty of trying to seize power, then suspended the four-year sentence in full. The verdict removes the one man who could challenge Japarov before the 2027 election, without making him a martyr.
Armenia's top court upholds the June election as the opposition vows to escalate
On 4 July Armenia's Constitutional Court rejected all seven opposition petitions and let the 7 June result stand, on the last day the law allowed. Nikol Pashinyan keeps his majority and his pro-Western course. Within the hour, five losing blocs answered that the legal fight is over and a political one begins.
Armenia's top court has one day left to rule on the June election
The Constitutional Court retired to deliberate on 1 July and must publish its verdict by the end of Saturday, 4 July, the last day the law allows. Seven opposition forces want the 7 June parliamentary result annulled. Expect the court to uphold it; the interest is in how it reasons, and what the losers do next.
Mirziyoyev ends a 23-year pause in Tbilisi, and Georgia gains a second Central Asian partner
The first Uzbek state visit to Georgia since 2003 brought a declaration of strategic partnership, Georgia’s highest state award and a package of agreements. Kazakhstan signed its own strategic partnership with Tbilisi three days earlier. The western gate of the Middle Corridor is signing up its shippers.
Before the first Kurultai vote, the ruling camp rearranges itself
Kazakhstan’s first single-chamber parliament will be chosen in August, entirely by party list. In the weeks before the constitution took effect, the parties that will contest it changed shape: the ruling party folded into a new one, and three others changed leaders. The field is being set before the campaign starts.
Kazakhstan’s new constitution takes effect, and the president keeps the tools of the rebuild
The constitution Kazakhstan approved in March takes effect today. The bicameral parliament that has stood since 1995 loses its powers, a single-chamber Kurultai will be elected in August, and until it convenes the president can rule by decree. The rebuild is real, and it leaves the instruments of the transition in one set of hands.
Tokayev moves Karin to the controls of the apparatus on the eve of the new constitution
On 30 June, a day before Kazakhstan’s new constitution takes effect, Tokayev named Erlan Karin first deputy head of the presidential administration, moving the architect of the state’s governing ideology into the machine that will run the August Kurultai election.
Kazakhstan and Georgia sign a strategic partnership, and the Middle Corridor gets a spine
Kazakhstan and Georgia signed a strategic partnership in Astana on 29 June, with the Trans-Caspian corridor at its centre. It binds the two ends of the route that carries Central Asian goods to Europe without crossing Russia, and it quietly extends Kazakhstan into the Caucasus by way of that corridor.
The week of the signed page
A war ended on a signed memorandum. A forum closed on EUR75 billion of pledges. A constitution was ratified by 87%. All three are documents. None of the three is yet a result. That gap is the week's real story.
An amnesty for 18,038, and a map of whom Tajikistan will not forgive
On 16 June, ahead of Tajikistan’s 35th independence anniversary, President Emomali Rahmon signed an amnesty covering 18,038 convicts, with 11,305 to be released outright. It is a large and genuine act of clemency. It is also, as these laws reliably are, built with a careful list of people it will not touch.
In one day, Kazakhstan courts Washington, Beijing and Moscow
On a single day this week Kazakhstan opened a US-led minerals dialogue, banked 6 billion dollars from China for a new city, and offered to pump more Russian gas to its neighbour. That is multi-vector foreign policy as a daily schedule.
Pashinyan wins — and the margin tells the real story
The final results of Armenia’s parliamentary elections have cemented Nikol Pashinyan’s third consecutive term, but the tight mathematical metrics reveal a complex legislative landscape ahead. While his Civil Contract party secured enough seats to form a government single-handedly, it fell short of the constitutional supermajority required to reshape the country's institutional framework. The razor-thin margin shows that while voters backed his westward shift, they refused to hand him absolute domestic power.
Four days out: Washington names Moscow's play in Armenia
Secretary Rubio told the Senate on Tuesday that Russia wants Pashinyan to lose. The claim lands in the middle of the dirtiest election campaign Armenia has seen in years.