Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee published foreign trade data for January–April 2026 on June 4. Total turnover: $26.33 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year. Imports: $16.36 billion, up 26.7%. Exports: $9.97 billion, down 16.8%. Trade deficit: $6.38 billion, against $930 million in the same period of 2025.
The deficit figure is arresting. The explanation is specific: Uzbekistan paused non-monetary gold exports for six months before resuming in April. In January–April 2025, gold exports totalled $5.48 billion. In the same period of 2026, they came to approximately $1.5 billion — a $4 billion reduction in a single commodity category.
Exclude gold, and non-gold exports rose 28–30% year-on-year. The core export base is expanding, not contracting.
The import surge reflects Uzbekistan's investment-led growth model: the top import categories are machinery, transport equipment, and industrial inputs — the inputs for manufacturing capacity, not consumption. China accounts for 25.6% of total trade turnover, Russia 18.2%, Kazakhstan 7.2%.
Uzbekistan resumed gold exports in April, shipping $1.504 billion worth — the first shipment since September 2025. The gold pause was a deliberate policy choice, not a market constraint. The deficit will narrow mechanically as gold flows normalise through Q2 and Q3.
CAW CONTEXT
Uzbekistan's macro story in 2026 is about investment-driven import growth paired with deliberate gold stockpiling — not structural trade weakness. GDP growth is running above 6% for the fifth consecutive year. The EBRD's February 2026 REP flags Uzbekistan as a key driver of Central Asia's regional outperformance. The trade data released today is consistent with that picture, once the gold distortion is removed. The Tajikistan–Uzbekistan bilateral trade figure buried in the same data release is also worth noting: $284.3 million in January–April 2026, up 50.7% year-on-year, driven by a Rahmon–Mirziyoyev commitment to reach $2 billion in bilateral trade.