Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee published foreign trade data for January-April 2026 on 4 June. Total turnover: $26.33 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year. Imports: $16.36 billion, up 26.7%. Exports: $9.97 billion, down 16.8%. Trade deficit: $6.38 billion, against $930 million in the same period of 2025.
The deficit figure is arresting. The explanation is specific: Uzbekistan paused non-monetary gold exports for six months before resuming in April. In January-April 2025, gold exports totalled $5.48 billion. In the same period of 2026, they came to approximately $1.5 billion, a $4 billion reduction in a single commodity category.
Exclude gold, and non-gold exports rose 28 to 30% year-on-year. The core export base is expanding, not contracting.
The import surge reflects Uzbekistan's investment-led growth model: the top import categories are machinery, transport equipment, and industrial inputs, the inputs for manufacturing capacity, not consumption. China accounts for 25.6% of total trade turnover, Russia 18.2%, Kazakhstan 7.2%.
Uzbekistan resumed gold exports in April, shipping $1.504 billion worth, the first shipment since September 2025. The gold pause was a deliberate policy choice, not a market constraint. The deficit will narrow mechanically as gold flows normalise through Q2 and Q3.
Uzbekistan's macro story in 2026 is about investment-driven import growth paired with deliberate gold stockpiling, not structural trade weakness. GDP growth is running above 6% for the fifth consecutive year. The EBRD's February 2026 REP flags Uzbekistan as a key driver of Central Asia's regional outperformance. The trade data released today is consistent with that picture, once the gold distortion is removed. The Tajikistan-Uzbekistan bilateral trade figure buried in the same data release is also worth noting: $284.3 million in January-April 2026, up 50.7% year-on-year, driven by a Rahmon-Mirziyoyev commitment to reach $2 billion in bilateral trade.