The vice president is appointed by the president with the consent of the Kurultai. The office carries one function above the rest: if the president resigns, falls ill or dies in office, power passes to the vice president. Under the old text it passed to the speaker of the Senate. The Senate is gone, and the line of succession now runs through an office the president fills himself.
The Senate is gone, and the line of succession now runs through an office the president fills himself.
The timing points past the summer. The Kurultai has to exist before it can give consent, so the vice president is likely to be named after the August vote, alongside the new government. That appointment is worth more attention than any other. It is the clearest signal the system offers about who is being prepared.
The first move has already happened. On 30 June, a day before the constitution took effect, Tokayev shifted Erlan Karin from State Counsellor, a post the new charter abolishes, to first deputy head of the presidential administration. Karin drafted much of the “Just Kazakhstan” project. He now sits at the operating controls of the apparatus while the transition runs.
Tokayev, 73, holds a single seven-year term that ends in 2029, and he has rejected talk of an early handover, saying the next presidential vote comes in 2029. Analysts sketch three routes the new text opens: step back early while keeping influence, install a trusted vice president and transfer power gradually, or reset the term rules again. The charter keeps all three on the table.
None of this proves a plan. It is the architecture of one. The question CAW will track is narrow and answerable: who becomes vice president, and when.