Daily output averaged 1.85 million barrels in July against 2.16 million in June, a source familiar with the operational statistics told Reuters on Monday; the month’s total came to 7.6 million tonnes against 8.59 million. Tengiz fell 18% for the month and was running at about 454,000 barrels a day by 31 July against a June average of 961,000 in the same account. Kashagan lost 25%, Karachaganak 18%.
At the terminal, the recovery is visible ship by ship. Four tankers have completed loading Kazakh crude since the 30 July strikes, two have sailed, and at least three more are waiting nearby, per Bloomberg vessel data relayed by The Times of Central Asia on Wednesday morning. The energy ministry’s last published rate has the pipeline taking 100,000 tonnes a day as of 1 August. That is roughly a third of the June average of 286,600.
The redirection now has its first hard number. Tengizchevroil plans to move about 100,000 tonnes of crude by rail to Georgia’s Batumi terminal in August, around 24,000 barrels a day and 5 times July’s volume; some 20,000 tonnes have gone that way since early July, the first Batumi shipments since March. Set against the roughly 310,000 barrels a day of average production lost between June and July, the August rail plan replaces well under a tenth. The arithmetic is the desk’s, run on the two sources’ own figures.
What is missing is the operator’s ledger. CPC has issued no statement in its own name since 30 July, and its July loading total, the number that would put a tonnage on the crisis month, remains unpublished 5 days into August. Until it appears, the month’s record rests on an unnamed source, a shareholder’s call and the ministry’s intake line. Each tells part of it. None of them signs it.