The exceptions are two: humanitarian aid, and shipments made by decision of the government. The second clause is where the order’s real content sits.
Every future fuel export becomes a decision of the government, which is to say a favor with a price.
The context has moved since the draft was filed at the start of July. Kyrgyzstan has banned fuel exports indefinitely and signed its first diesel and jet fuel contracts with Belarus and China. Russia’s resolution 854 shut its own diesel exports. And the region’s fuel arithmetic now includes a Black Sea terminal that stops loading every time a drone connects. A wall that looked defensive three weeks ago reads today as the region’s default trade regime.
The ministry’s own case for calm: stocks at about 36 days as of June, per minister Akkenzhenov, and a record refining year behind it, 13.6 million tons of light products in 2025, with Atyrau back from maintenance since 8 July, ahead of schedule. The same ministry’s 2025-2040 strategy wants fuel exports growing to China, India and Central Asia. The draft and the strategy point in opposite directions; the draft is the one whose window closes tomorrow.
What to read after Tuesday: whether the order is adopted as filed; whether EAEU partners file objections and whether the union clause survives them; and which government-decision exports appear first, since the exceptions list is where the wall’s real policy will be written.