The survey is the Institute of Eurasian Integration’s: 4,000 respondents across all regions, fieldwork 16 to 26 July, published 30 July and analyzed by The Times of Central Asia on Tuesday. Auyl stands at 5.9%. Below the line sit Ak Zhol at 4.7%, Respublica at 4.6%, OSDP at 4.2%, the People’s Party at 4.1% and Baytaq at 0.5%. Another 8.4% are undecided.
All 145 seats are distributed by nationwide party list, so the threshold does the work a district map would do elsewhere. As surveyed, the chamber built as the centrepiece of the 2026 constitutional redesign would open with one dominant party and one rural partner sitting 0.9 points above the cut. The survey’s own margin of error is 1.54 points. Inside that band the bar could catch Auyl, or admit any of the four parties ranked behind it.
Seven parties registered 545 candidates by the close of nominations on 13 July, on Kursiv’s count of the commission’s lists. The campaign opened on 23 July, after most of the fieldwork. The electoral commission puts more than 12.6 million voters on the list, per coverage of its 3 August session. Every party rating in circulation traces back to this single survey, and it is carried here as the institute’s own figure.