Exchange data reviewed by the Uzbek outlet Spot show the price up 11.8% since the start of June, with the sharpest move in the first week of the month: 10.5% in four days. Prices then held near 13.7 to 13.8 million soums before setting the record at month’s end.
The domestic side of the squeeze is production. Uzbekistan’s petrol output has been falling, down 14.8% in the first half of 2025 alone, and imports fill the gap: oil-product imports rose 42.2% year on year in the first quarter to $449 million, with petrol import volumes more than doubling. Two producers, Uzbekneftegaz and Saneg, dominate the exchange, and economists have long argued the price moves up regardless of what Brent does.
The regional side is supply. Russia, the backstop supplier, has restricted fuel exports while Ukrainian strikes cut into its refining. Kazakhstan’s Atyrau refinery is in scheduled maintenance until 20 July, and Moscow has asked Astana for petrol, a reversal CAW covered this week. When the two northern suppliers tighten at once, the price lands on the Tashkent exchange.
When the two northern suppliers tighten at once, the price lands on the Tashkent exchange.
What to watch: whether retail prices follow the exchange through July, whether Tashkent leans on imports from Turkmenistan or farther afield, and how long the Russian restrictions hold. Fuel inflation feeds everything from taxi fares to food logistics, and Uzbekistan’s record arrives in the middle of the grain harvest.