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Economy

Turkmenistan reports growth the IMF cannot find

Ashgabat’s half-year review claims GDP growth of 6.3%. The IMF projects 2.4% for the year and says it builds its own estimates because the official numbers are hard to reconcile with anything else.

Turkmenistan reports growth the IMF cannot find

The figures, reviewed at an extended government meeting and relayed by The Times of Central Asia on Tuesday: transport and communications up 10.4%, trade 8.5%, services 8.4%, construction 6.7%, industry 2.7%, agriculture 2%. Retail turnover rose 10.1%, foreign trade 7.5%. Capital investment reached 18.6 billion manats, $5.3 billion in TCA’s conversion, with 45.1% going to production facilities and the rest to social and cultural construction.

On the official series, 6.3% puts Turkmenistan ahead of Kazakhstan’s 4.1% for the half-year and behind Kyrgyzstan’s 11.9%, Uzbekistan’s 8.5% and Tajikistan’s 8.2%. The standing caveat does the real work: the IMF’s 2026 projection for the country is 2.4%, and the fund states that it uses its own GDP estimates because the official narrative “is difficult to reconcile with other available data”.