A pipeline idea that has circled the Caspian for thirty years is drawing fresh high-level attention. The proposed Trans-Caspian Pipeline would run about 300 kilometres under the sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then feed the existing Southern Gas Corridor through Georgia and Turkey into Europe. Cost estimates sit near $12 billion, and the project is on the European Commission’s list of projects of common interest, which makes it eligible for EU funding.
The timing is the story. The EU has legally binding measures to end imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by late 2027. The conflict around Iran has added a second supply shock and stripped Turkey of Iranian volumes, sharpening Ankara’s search for alternatives. Turkey’s energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, used an April conference to press for urgent talks on a dedicated Caspian crossing.
Azerbaijan already ships an estimated 12 to 20 billion cubic metres a year to Europe through the corridor, and its output has faced delays. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest gas reserves and is not yet connected to European buyers by pipe.
Europe must clear its last Russian gas by late 2027. Turkmen reserves are the fourth-largest on earth and not yet plumbed to Europe.
The familiar barriers have not gone away. Russia and Iran dispute whether the legal status of the Caspian allows the line to be built without all littoral states’ consent. Financing, specialised subsea construction and a firm Turkmen supply commitment all remain unresolved.