The decree published on Thursday evening fixes the regime: gasoline exports banned for all sellers from 1 August to 31 January 2027; diesel and marine fuel banned for producers and traders alike through August, with producers released from 1 September; exemptions only for deliveries under intergovernmental agreements and for humanitarian aid.
Bishkek moved first. Kyrgyzstan is negotiating monthly deliveries of about 100,000 tonnes of fuel at market prices, first deputy cabinet chairman Daniyar Amangeldiyev said on 28 July, with a delegation in Russia in the week the decree was signed. The street explains the urgency: petrol in Bishkek runs 5 to 8.5 som over the state caps, diesel 4.4 to 6.
“Despite internal problems, Russia is ready to help us as much as possible.”
Daniyar Amangeldiyev, 28 July
Dushanbe opened a second track. Energy minister Daler Juma put petroleum-product imports at the centre of his meeting with China’s ambassador Guo Zhijun on Wednesday, Avesta reported, and Asia-Plus framed the exchange on Friday as the start of supply talks. The week’s sequence in Tajikistan reads as one motion: Emomali Rahmon’s directive on fuel, the ambassador meeting the same day, and a call with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in which the Tajik readout carried an increase in Kazakh oil-product supplies while the Akorda’s version stayed silent on fuel.
Kazakhstan’s own export ban keeps a matching gate, exports by government decision. The arithmetic of August is therefore administrative. What crosses a border is what has a signature under it; market diesel returns no earlier than September, market gasoline not before February.
What to watch is narrow: the first published August schedules under the intergovernmental channel, and whether Dushanbe’s China track produces a contract or stays a meeting.