Amrin’s arithmetic, in Tengrinews’s report at 13:52: the budget as a whole received 1.7 trillion tenge less because of the fall in output, and the direct loss through the export customs duty and lower export volumes is about 200 billion. His explanation for the volume was short. “There were fires too. Accordingly, the geopolitical situation has an effect. Our output became smaller, and exports became smaller.”
The 105 million tonnes was the original plan, in Amrin’s words; the energy ministry’s own production plan for the year was cut from 99.55 million tonnes to 96. Output for the first 8 months was 61.7 million tonnes, 8.4% below a year earlier. Reaching 96 would need 8.6 million tonnes a month from September to December against the 7.7 of the first 8 months.
The draft writes a war premium into the price and a war discount into the volume, and the two do not cancel.
For 2027 the draft writes the dollar at 480 tenge. The current law was written at 540, and 540 to 554 was where the rate stood when the draft was planned in July 2025, Amrin said in Tengrinews’s report at 11:42; the average since January is about 478. “We have, on the contrary, been a little conservative: 480 tenge,” he said. On Wednesday the tenge closed at 444.88, its strongest since May 2024; on Thursday it closed at 444.58, Zakon.kz reported.
Its barrel is $70, $10 above what was assumed a year ago. The National Bank’s baseline runs $89 for 2026 and $75 for 2027. Brent on ICE was $104.75 on Thursday afternoon, down $1.08 in Zakon.kz’s print, and Azeri Light, the Caspian blend priced at Augusta, fell 4.6% to $122.15 in Trend’s morning print, which cited reports that Saudi Arabia plans to restore the capacity of the damaged East-West pipeline.
The draft writes a war premium into the price and a war discount into the volume, and the two do not cancel. At $70 and 480 tenge a barrel is worth 33,600 tenge in the budget’s arithmetic, against 32,400 at $60 and 540: the price assumption rises 17%, the currency assumption falls 11%, and the tenge per barrel rises 4%. The barrels fell 9%.
A stronger tenge cuts the other way. The same $70 barrel at Thursday’s 444.58 gives 31,120 tenge, 18% less than at the 540 of the current law, so the draft’s 480 is a bet that the currency gives some of this year’s strength back. What the draft cannot write in is the terminal: more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports leave through Novorossiysk, where the fuel-oil terminal burned on 9 September and the consortium’s channel has carried no operational statement since 30 July. The 1.7 trillion is what this year’s shortfall looks like in the ledger; the watch is the Kurultai’s reading of the draft and the ministry’s next production forecast.