The EDB’s macroeconomic outlook, presented in Almaty on 15 June, puts combined Central Asian output above $600 billion in 2026 and regional growth over 6.5%. The fast growers are the small economies: Kyrgyzstan at 10.2%, Tajikistan at 8.3%, Uzbekistan at 7.9%, with Kazakhstan at 5.5%. Across the bank’s seven members, combined GDP nears $3.5 trillion.
The annual meeting opens on 25 June in the city where the bank is headquartered, with Kazakh Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov chairing its council. The outlook is the document on the table.
Growth rates flatter the smallest balance sheets. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan post double-digit and near double-digit prints off thin bases, heavy remittance dependence and rising external and quasi-sovereign debt. A high growth rate measures speed. It says little about whether a state can service what it has borrowed.
Tajikistan is the working example, and it ran through this wire yesterday. An economy near $20 billion carries external debt worth roughly a quarter of GDP, leans on remittances equal to 46 to 49% of GDP, owes part of that debt against gold-mine output, and faces a $500 million eurobond due in 2027. It is forecast to grow 8.3% this year. Both things hold at once.
Part of the headline is borrowed from a crisis. The EDB credits high commodity prices, and the oil premium that lifted Kazakh export earnings came from the Gulf conflict and the threat to Hormuz. As the strait normalizes, that premium unwinds, and the growth it financed unwinds with it.
The meeting will lead with $600 billion. The figures that decide the next two years sit lower on the page: eurobond maturities, energy subsidies, state-enterprise arrears and the debt-service line for the fastest growers.