Trend's table at 09:44 Baku time had Azeri Light CIF Augusta up $0.87, or 0.81%, at $108.18; FOB Ceyhan at $104.99; Dated Brent at $108.68, up $2.17; and Urals at $81.95, which leaves the Russian grade $26 under the Azerbaijani one; Trend gave no basis for its Urals quote. The outlet gave one reason, Iran's announcement of strikes on two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf.
Interfax's reasons at 10:31 were the same war seen from Moscow: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing missile strikes on US forces at the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan and on two US Navy destroyers, and reports that the United States had destroyed five Iranian tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Brent had closed near $97.92 on Tuesday. WTI for October stood at $94.67, up $1.64.
The arithmetic against the region's two oil budgets is now large. Azerbaijan wrote $65 into its 2026 budget, and Azeri Light stands 66% above it. Kazakhstan's 2026 budget law runs on $60 a barrel and 540 tenge to the dollar, and the National Bank's own forecast baseline, published with its 4 September rate cut, is $89. At $100.06 Brent stands 67% above the Kazakh budget price and 12% above the bank's.
The tenge did not follow the barrel. The weighted average on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange closed the day session at 456.89 to the dollar, 2.5 weaker than the previous session's 454.39, Informburo reported at 15:44 Astana time; exchange bureaus sold dollars at 455.5 to 457. Informburo gave no reason for the move, and the desk offers none.
At $100.06 Brent stands 67% above the Kazakh budget price and 12% above the bank's.
The last time the desk logged the two prices side by side, on 4 September, Azeri Light was $104.98 and Brent was 58% above the Kazakh budget. Since then the Azerbaijani grade has added $3, and the port at the end of the Kazakh export route has taken the strike described in the item above.