Three days before Armenians vote, the polling picture has shifted significantly since the campaign opened. The PolitPro aggregate as of June 3 puts Civil Contract (Kaghakatsiakan Paymanagir) at 46% of decided voters — far above the 32% vote intention recorded among all respondents in earlier surveys. The gap between decided and undecided support remains the central uncertainty.
Among opposition forces, Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia alliance stands at 13.3%, the Hayastan Dashink (Armenia Alliance, led by Kocharyan) at 9.1%, and Prosperous Armenia at 7.6%. A Euronews-cited survey puts Civil Contract's lead among decided voters even higher — at nearly 65%.
Nearly a third of voters remain undecided. Their choice will determine whether Pashinyan's majority is commanding or conditional.
What has moved the polls is the peace narrative. Pashinyan has centred the final stretch of the campaign on a single message: more than two years without deaths or injuries on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The IRI nationwide survey released this week found 61% of respondents saying Armenia is heading in the right direction — up significantly from earlier 2026 polling.
Russia's intervention in the campaign has been overt. Moscow suspended imports of Armenian mineral water (Jermuk brand) in May — a lever it has used against Armenia before. Russian political consultants linked to Kremlin-affiliated structures have been alleged, in leaked documents, to be advising Strong Armenia. A ZOiS Berlin survey found that Russian migrants living in Armenia view Civil Contract as the better option, largely because of the peace deal with Azerbaijan.
Campaign ends June 5. Day of silence June 6. Polls open June 7. OSCE/ODIHR preliminary findings: June 8, 15:00 Yerevan time. CAW coverage plan: breaking news June 7 evening, analysis June 8.