“It is obvious that member states have no right to expel a member state from the organization,” the prime minister said when asked about the report by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan at the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, Armenpress reported at 12:51 Yerevan. “Such a possibility exists in the CSTO, given that the member states overlap. It is interesting why Armenia is not being expelled from the CSTO. As for the EAEU, this is the first time in our history that the metropolis is not pulling us toward itself but is indirectly telling us, ‘We will expel you from us.’”
Gas would rise from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic metres by the report’s arithmetic.
He then gave the document a place in a sequence. “This will be the third attempt to change the government in Armenia. The first was the events of 2023, when, in Karabakh, in the presence of Russian peacekeepers, the aim was to direct the flow of people toward Armenia, while calls were simultaneously being made to change the political authorities. The next was the regular parliamentary elections in June 2026. Now a third attempt is being prepared. There is no economic component here; we are dealing with a political component,” he said, adding that the goal was domestic instability and the loss of independence, de facto and then de jure, and that “the Armenian state is sufficiently resilient and will overcome this situation as well”. Russia’s earlier restrictions, in his words, had not produced the results sought by circles in Armenia and abroad.
On the report’s numbers he said only: “As for those data and forecasts, we will live and see.” The report, released on 20 October and posted on the Russian government’s site, says the four states have the right to consider suspending the treaty’s application because of Armenia’s 2025 law on starting EU accession, and that the suspension could last until a referendum on EU membership. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan had said on 21 October that he knew of no legal mechanism for expulsion or suspension, as CAW reported on 22 October.
Gas was the afternoon’s question. Gas would rise from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic metres by the report’s arithmetic. That is about 69%, with GDP falling 15.6%, about $4.6 billion, inflation rising 14.9 percentage points above the baseline and trade with the bloc falling 55.6%, ARKA summarised at 16:07. “There will be no apocalypse for Armenia’s economy. Those who still talk about an apocalypse simply do not understand economics, to put it bluntly,” Pashinyan said at the briefing, recalling forecasts made since 2018: “And what has happened to Armenia’s economy during that time? It has grown, and it will continue to grow.” His test case was agriculture: “How is it that in neighboring Turkey, gas costs three to four times more, yet tomatoes grown there are cheaper than those grown in Armenia?”
Moscow’s institutional answer came on the security side, and on Friday. “They listen to the weekly reports but do not take part in our main events, exercises and the like. In principle, they have de facto already left on their own,” CSTO Secretary General Taalatbek Masadykov told TASS, Kommersant reported at 06:14 Moscow on 23 October. Yerevan receives every document for domestic approval and systematically declines to take part in discussions and decisions, he said. Armenia froze its CSTO membership in February 2024, Pashinyan said in August he would be glad to be expelled, and the government does not plan to restore membership in the next five years.
The same briefing opened a domestic front. Pashinyan did not rule out snap parliamentary elections if the new Constitution cannot be adopted otherwise, Armenpress reported at 13:25: the draft will be published soon, discussed and submitted to parliament, and if the opposition cannot be persuaded, “we will pursue other scenarios, including holding snap elections. Who said that such a scenario is ruled out?” The Constitution, he said, is not discussed with Azerbaijan, a point he raised at the meeting in Bishkek, where the Azerbaijani side called it Armenia’s internal matter while stating its political position in the peace-agreement talks.
Thursday produced three answers from Yerevan, no right to expel, no apocalypse, snap elections if needed, and Friday morning one from the CSTO’s secretariat. No page read on either day carried a reply from Moscow’s government to Pashinyan or a date for the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council’s next session.