NORSI, near Nizhny Novgorod, processes about 15 million tons of crude a year and makes about 5 million tons of petrol, second in the country. Wednesday's hit was the fifth on the plant this year. Perm stopped on August 21, Volgograd on July 31; "at present, all of Lukoil's major Russian oil refineries are out of operation," Reuters reported. The independent Novoshakhtinsk plant in Rostov region stopped on Tuesday after its own overnight attack.
Moscow's answer to shortage has been to wall exports in: petrol export is banned for everyone through January 31, 2027, diesel for non-producers on the same clock. The wall assumes there is product behind it. Each idle refinery thins that assumption, and from September 1 producers regain the right to ship diesel out, an exemption whose largest holders include Lukoil.
Mongolia shows where this leads. Rosneft's commitment stands at 75,000 tons; 50,000 have arrived as Euro-2, and the remaining 25,000 are being covered from China, South Korea and Singapore, the industry ministry said Wednesday. "We can only obtain Euro-5 type fuel," minister Gongoryn Damdinnyam said. A Russian shortfall closed with third-country product is the market speaking plainly.
The exposure this lands on is not small. Kyrgyzstan imports about 95% of its fuel from Russia, roughly 2 million tons a year, and spent August signing with Sinopec and CNPC. Tajikistan, at about 90% on its customs count, asked Iran on August 15 for 2.55 million tons across four products; Tehran's oil ministry called the framework finalized, its roads ministry offered readiness without volumes.
“We can only obtain Euro-5 type fuel”
Kazakhstan reversed a flow outright: the Kondensat refinery at Aksai will keep up to 30% of its petrol and diesel at home and send the rest to Russia, the energy minister confirmed on Tuesday. The region has begun supplying its supplier.
Three dates carry the next moves: September 1, when the diesel exemption opens; September 30, when Kyrgyzstan's price caps and their subsidy expire; and Mongolia's September book, which so far lists 10,000 tons of petrol, 3,000 of jet fuel and no diesel line. Watch the Russian wholesale prints: if they keep climbing, the pull on Kazakh product northward will outrun the region's re-contracting east and south.