The figure comes from Olzhas Baidildinov, a Kazakh energy commentator, in a Telegram post picked up by Kursiv on Thursday. His arithmetic starts from the Reuters production set already on the record: 7.6 million tonnes produced in July against 8.59 million in June, a loss of roughly 1 million tonnes. At a July Brent price of about $87 a barrel he counts $635 million in lost oil revenue alone. With the associated fall in gas output added, the loss, in his words, easily exceeds $700 million.
The desk reran his numbers in the open. At 7.3 barrels to the tonne, 1 million tonnes is 7.3 million barrels; at $87 each, $635 million follows. Kazakh export grades convert at up to 7.6 barrels a tonne, which would push the oil-only line toward $660 million. The estimate holds either way.
What the number is: one expert’s count, built on wire-service reporting that itself rests on an unnamed industry source. What official Kazakhstan has confirmed is narrower. The energy ministry said intake into the pipeline was running at 100,000 tonnes a day as of 1 August, about a third of June’s rate. A loss figure has yet to surface from the ministry. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has published neither its July loading total nor any statement under its own name since 30 July.
The market side of the ledger is already on the record: charter rates near $338,000 a day for tankers calling at the terminal, war-risk cover quoted at up to 2% of hull value, August cargoes offered at close to $4 a barrel below Brent, as we reported on Thursday. Those prices fall on every barrel that moves. Baidildinov’s total counts the barrels that never did.
Two numbers are still missing: the consortium’s July loading total and anything said in its own name, a silence that dates from 30 July. The expert’s estimate now poses a third question, whether an official loss figure follows it.