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Turkish Factor

Fidan arrives in Baku with a $15 billion trade target and a summit to prepare; Ankara's index reached No: 180 without a word on the tug strike that killed 2 Azerbaijanis

Turkey's foreign ministry announced the visit of 15 and 16 September in one sentence on Monday. Hürriyet Daily News listed the meetings, with Jeyhun Bayramov, defence minister Zakir Hasanov and Ilham Aliyev, and the agenda: the trade target both presidents set, energy and transport projects, the defence industry, and the Organization of Turkic States summit Ankara hosts on 29 and 30 October.

Fidan arrives in Baku with a $15 billion trade target and a summit to prepare; Ankara's index reached No: 180 without a word on the tug strike that killed 2 Azerbaijanis

Press release No: 180 says that Hakan Fidan will pay a visit to Azerbaijan on 15 and 16 September 2026, and nothing else. It followed No: 179 the same day, on statements by Greek authorities, and No: 178 on Sunday, on Fidan's trip to Syria. Since No: 174 on 9 September the index has carried no line on the Black Sea: none on the salvage tug Tedy, struck twice off Odesa that day with 2 Azerbaijani crew dead, and none on the Lionfish, the Turkish-flagged ro-ro hit at the weekend on a passage from Ambarli that two Turkish maritime outlets route differently, to Novorossiysk or to Trabzon.

Hürriyet Daily News, writing on Monday afternoon, gave the visit its content. Bilateral and delegation-level talks with Bayramov; a meeting with Hasanov; a reception by Aliyev. On the table: the strategic relationship, the trade target of $15 billion the two presidents agreed against a current $7 billion, joint energy and transport projects, defence-industry, security and military ties, and coordination inside the Organization of Turkic States before the summit and before COP31 in Antalya in November. Fidan, the paper said, would restate Ankara's support for the normalisation between Baku and Yerevan and for reconstruction in Karabakh.

On day 6, the ministry Fidan runs has issued 6 press releases and none of them mentions the boat.

An energy protocol was signed before the minister landed. On 11 September in Baku, Parviz Shahbazov and Alparslan Bayraktar signed the protocol of the fifth Azerbaijan-Turkey energy forum, covering hydrocarbons and petrochemicals, energy efficiency, the electricity market, renewables, regulation and mining; the previous forum sat in Izmir on 4 September 2025.

Azerbaijan's side of the announcement came through Turkish channels: APA's Türkiye bureau cited Sabah, Azernews cited Anadolu. Bayramov's most recent public line on the route is from 9 September: the start of physical work on the Trump route is moved to 2027, and the main negotiations run between Armenia and the United States.

The Tedy is the missing line. The tug lost 2 of its crew, Aslan Aliyev and Asim Gasimov, in the strike of 9 September; Baku's foreign ministry spoke on 10 September of consular support and the return of the wounded, and named no attacker; the owner, Mert Marine, and the operator, Aras Salvage, are Turkish. On day 6, the ministry Fidan runs has issued 6 press releases and none of them mentions the boat.

Whether the tug comes up in Baku will show in one of two indexes, Ankara's or Baku's. Azeri Light, the other number the two capitals share, has not printed since the $120.02 of 12 September: Trend's energy desk showed no Monday quotation, and no Tuesday print by 09:15 Baku time.

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