Asia-Plus published at 10:05. Pairav Chorshanbiev's report describes the lot as the right bank's hydraulic structures, the spillways, the tunnels that serve them and the hydromechanical equipment, together with excavation and slope reinforcement. Its columns show the procurement under way, with 13 August 2026 for contract signing and 4 February 2028 for completion.
The Bank's procurement plans carry two dates for each milestone, a planned one and an actual one. Asia-Plus reads the lot as a contract in preparation and does not say which of the two 13 August is; a signed contract would come with a contractor's name, and the report names none. Either the signing is booked for a date already past, or it happened in August without an announcement.
The bid's public history makes an August signing plausible. On 16 December 2025 the Project Management Group for Energy Facilities Construction under the President invited prequalification applications for Lot 3A by 26 January, with the request for bids expected in May, Hydropower and Dams International reported; the works are to be cofinanced by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the AIIB and the European Investment Bank. Discharges of up to 3,400 cubic metres a second are the spillways' design figure.
The Bank's own paper runs on two speeds.
What changed is the package. The earlier plan carried Lot 3A at $1.385 billion with a cancelled status; the new one carries a new package under the same name at $1 billion. Asia-Plus warns against reading the difference as a saving for the project as a whole.
The Bank had earlier approved a $15 million grant for technical assistance on the project's financial and commercial model, its technical preparation and its management team. S&P Global Ratings put the money still needed to finish Rogun at about $5.8 billion in August, Asia-Plus notes; the $1 billion lot is a sixth of that.
In London on Monday, at J.P. Morgan's investor conference, finance minister Faiziddin Kahhorzoda and EBRD president Odile Renaud-Basso signed an investment roadmap for 2026 to 2030, Asia-Plus reported at 16:11. It names renewable-energy auctions, state-enterprise governance, grid reinforcement and loss reduction, transmission lines, roads, water and sewerage, irrigation, electric buses and rural broadband. It names no sum.
The frame the money lands in is the one CAW read on 11 September: the Bank's country partnership framework moves Tajikistan from IDA grants to credits from July and rates the programme's risk high, with Rogun's spending named as a fiscal hazard.
The Bank's own paper runs on two speeds. Its framework warns; its procurement plan builds, with a $1 billion lot moving from prequalification to a signing column in 8 months. What to watch is the $5.8 billion behind the lot, and which of the four cofinanciers carries the next one.
Unresolved: whether 13 August is a planned date or a signed one, and who the contractor is; the split of the $1 billion among the four lenders; the date the request for bids went out.