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July’s missing oil gets its first price tag
An energy commentator has put a dollar figure on Kazakhstan’s July production losses: more than $700 million of revenue in a single month. No official loss figure has surfaced, and the pipeline consortium has now said nothing in its own name for 8 days.
Chartering a tanker for the CPC terminal now costs $338,000 a day
The shipping market has repriced Kazakhstan's main export route. Daily charter rates for tankers calling at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have reached about $338,000, war-risk cover for calls at Black Sea terminals has climbed to as much as 2% of a vessel's value, and August-loading CPC Blend was offered this week at nearly $4 a barrel below Brent.
Mongolia zeroes its fuel taxes at the border
With rationing in force in Ulaanbaatar and 11 days to COP17, the cabinet has cancelled the excise on petrol and diesel and cut customs duties on every petroleum product to zero, giving up a revenue line to lower the cost of every imported litre.
Rationing meets high season in Mongolia
Mongolia’s tour guides went public on Wednesday with what fuel rationing is costing the strongest tourist season in four years. The UN’s desertification summit opens in Ulaanbaatar in 12 days.
The first count of July arrives from an unnamed source
Kazakhstan pumped 14% less oil a day in July than in June, the first month-scale measure of what the tanker war costs. The figure comes from an industry source through Reuters. The consortium that runs the route has still published nothing under its own name.
Bishkek prices the day the caps lapse
Kyrgyzstan’s cabinet chairman Adylbek Kasymaliev said on Tuesday that diesel could reach 130 to 140 som a litre and petrol 110 to 120. The caps in force run to 30 September: 93.9 for diesel, 79.9 for AI-92. The head of government has now priced what comes after them.
The fuel wall arrives, and the region answers with signatures
From Saturday, Russia’s gasoline export ban covers every exporter, and for August the diesel ban reaches even the producers. The decree leaves one door open, intergovernmental agreements, and the region spent the week queueing at it.
Moscow writes the fuel wall into a decree, and adds diesel
Russia’s government published the decree on 30 July: the gasoline export ban now runs from 1 August to 31 January 2027 and covers all exporters, and for the month of August diesel and marine fuel join it. Exports under intergovernmental agreements and humanitarian aid stay exempt.
A $90 barrel reaches the region from both ends
Brent traded above $90 on 29 July, up more than 6% in a day, after a Houthi attack on a Saudi tanker and American-Saudi strikes in Iraq. Central Asia meets the rally shipping at a fraction of its June tempo and importing fuel at world prices.
Kazakhstan starts moving oil around a closed route
With loading at the CPC terminal shut for a fifth day, Astana had begun redirecting exports to alternative routes and was assessing its losses, Kommersant reported on 20 July, while the consortium has gone to court against Ukraine over damage it values in billions of roubles. The energy ministry now frames the production cut as a technological necessity: with the terminal’s tanks full, companies trimmed daily volumes to stop the system overflowing.
Tengiz halves its output
Kazakhstan cut oil and gas condensate production on 22 July after export loadings stopped at the CPC terminal, Reuters reported, citing a source: daily output at Tengiz fell to 406,000 barrels from 925,000. The energy ministry confirmed a temporary reduction and said consultations are running with the consortium, shippers and shipowners.
Novorossiysk stops taking Kazakh oil
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has stopped accepting Kazakh crude and the terminal’s tanks are full, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Tracking data shows at least two tankers bound for the berths have changed course. There is a measured precedent for what follows: when the terminal was attacked last November, Reuters reported Kazakh output falling about 6% the following month.
The market answers first: charterers flee the CPC water
Foreign shipowners are refusing to send tankers to the CPC terminal after four tankers were hit in four days, Bloomberg reported, and the consortium was expected to stop accepting Kazakh pipeline crude on Tuesday. If intake stays shut into the weekend, Bloomberg’s sources say, Kazakhstan’s producers will have to cut output. The war has traveled the route’s full length, from the berths to the wellhead.
The protest was answered by the next drone
Loading at the CPC terminal restarted on Sunday evening and stopped again on Monday morning, when a drone hit the tanker NELSA at the mooring where one of Sunday’s two tankers had burned. Twenty-two of the crew were taken off by CPC tugs. A day after Kazakhstan demanded the attacks end, the demand’s market price was set at zero.
The drones reached the tankers loading Kazakhstan’s oil
On 17 and 19 July drone strikes hit three tankers serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, two of them at the loading berths with Tengiz and Kashagan crude aboard. Loading stopped, and on Sunday Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry called the attacks an encroachment on the country’s economic interests, demanded they end and reserved the right to claim damages.
The region’s fuel importer starts guarding fuel like an exporter
Kyrgyzstan, which buys over 90% of its fuel from Russia, banned the export of gasoline, diesel and crude on Tuesday, indefinitely: the ban runs until the domestic market is fully supplied, or until the EAEU’s common oil market arrives, whichever comes first. The government says it has asked five countries for help and signed fuel contracts with Belarus and China.
Almaty’s winter project is 26% built, and the premier starts naming names
Prime minister Bektenov used Tuesday’s government meeting to threaten the head of Samruk-Energo with personal responsibility if Almaty’s CHP-3 is not finished by year-end. The gas-conversion project stands at 26%. In June the same warning went to the head of the railways, who is now the former head of the railways.
Kazakhstan’s oil windfall lands on a 3.3-million-tonne hole
A day after Brent’s biggest jump in six years, Kazakhstan’s energy minister told the government that first-half output fell 8.4%, to 45.7 million tonnes. The price came from one war; much of the hole came from the other. And the ministry’s patch for it is the one this desk watches for: deferring maintenance.
Oil at $83 pays Kazakhstan and bills its neighbors
Brent settled at $83.30 on Monday, up 9.6% in what CNN called its biggest one-day percentage gain in over six years, after Washington announced a blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran hit two Emirati tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Crossings through the strait have more than halved. For Central Asia the same price line runs in two directions at once.
Russia bans all diesel exports, and starts buying fuel itself
Resolution 854 of 8 July extends Russia’s diesel export ban to the producers themselves through 31 July, and deputy prime minister Alexander Novak says the country begins importing fuel this month. For the Central Asian states that run on Russian fuel, the quota survives on paper. The molecules now have a competing buyer.